DE 40 extends decline, reaching three-month lows

The DE 40 has returned to levels last seen in late June 2026. The index is undergoing a minor correction, but the trend remains bearish. Find out more in our analysis for 14 September 2026.

DE 40 forecast: key takeaways

• The DE 40 index has been falling since late August
• The ECB raised its main refinancing rate to 2.65%
• DE 40 forecast for 14 September 2026: 24,850

DE 40 fundamental analysis

The DE 40 index continues to decline, with a minor correction. The German index has formed a sustained downtrend.

The European Central Bank's decision on 10 September is generally a moderately negative factor for the DE 40, although the rate hike itself came as no surprise. The ECB raised all three key interest rates by 25 basis points, with the main refinancing operations rate up to 2.65%, the deposit rate up from 2.25% to 2.50%, and the marginal lending facility rate up to 2.90%. The decision fully matched market expectations, so the main source of pressure on stocks was not the increase in borrowing costs itself, but the ECB's signal that inflation would remain above target for an extended period and that further monetary policy tightening remained possible.

The DE 40 outlook is cautiously negative.

DE 40 technical analysis

On the D1 chart, the DE 40 remains in a downtrend. Following a minor correction at the end of last week, the decline is highly likely to continue. However, downward momentum is weakening, so the price may enter a sideways range.

The nearest resistance level is located at 26,170; a breakout above it would open the way towards 26,640. The support level lies at 25,295; if it is broken, the price would dip towards 24,850. As long as the DE 40 holds below resistance, the trend remains bearish. Nevertheless, a sideways trend remains possible.

The baseline scenario suggests a continued decline, but with limited targets.

DE 40 trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Sell Stop)

A consolidation below the 25,295 support level would confirm continued downward momentum and create conditions for a further decline in the DE 40.

• Current price: 25,456
• Entry level: 25,270
• Stop loss: 25,370
• Take profit: 24,850
• Risk-to-reward: approximately 1:4.1

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 21 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risks for the DE 40 are linked to the possibility that the ECB may continue to tighten monetary policy if inflation declines more slowly than expected or accelerates again due to rising energy prices. In this case, borrowing costs for companies and households would remain high, restraining investment, consumer demand, and business activity. A further rise in German government bond yields could add to pressure, as this would make debt instruments more attractive than stocks and reduce company valuations.

Summary

Overall, the ECB decision creates a moderately negative fundamental backdrop for the DE 40. The increase in the main refinancing rate from 2.40% to 2.65% was expected and, therefore, should not have triggered a sharp decline in the index. More importantly, the ECB raised its inflation forecasts and effectively confirmed the possibility of further rate hikes. The DE 40 forecast for today, 14 September 2026, does not rule out sideways movement between the current resistance and support levels. However, a further decline towards 24,850 is more likely.

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