JP 225 falls for the third consecutive session amid rising oil prices and bond yields

The JP 225 index is declining for the third consecutive trading session, driven by rising oil prices, higher US bond yields, and a stronger yen. The price currently stands at 64,683. Find out more in our analysis for 10 September 2026.

JP 225 forecast: key takeaways

• Rising oil prices are fuelling inflation risks and expectations of an imminent interest rate hike
• Additional pressure on Japanese stocks comes from higher US Treasury yields and the yen strengthening to a nearly seven-month high
• JP 225 forecast for 10 September 2026: 63,650

JP 225 fundamental analysis

The Nikkei 225 index is down by around 1% on Thursday, trading below 64,600 and marking its third consecutive session of declines. Rising oil prices are adding to pressure on the Japanese market, increasing inflation risks and supporting expectations of near-term monetary policy tightening.

Another negative factor is the weak performance of US stock indices. US Treasury yields rose after the US Treasury announced plans to buy back up to 6 billion USD of long-term debt. Although the amount is three times larger than usual, some investors had expected more extensive measures, which intensified selling in the bond market.

Market participants are also watching the yen, which has strengthened to a nearly seven-month high. A stronger national currency may worsen the outlook for export-oriented Japanese companies, as it reduces the value of overseas revenue when converted into yen.

The most notable declines are seen in the technology and consumer sectors, with Fujikura shares down 4.4%, Ibiden 3.1%, Furukawa Electric 4.9%, Nintendo 3.8%, and Fast Retailing 1.5%. High oil prices combined with a stronger yen, and rising global yields continue to create an unfavourable backdrop for the JP 225.

The JP 225 outlook is moderately negative.

JP 225 technical analysis

On the H4 timeframe, the JP 225 retains a bearish bias after failing to consolidate above the 66,700 area. The price has fallen below the middle Bollinger Band and is now moving towards the lower boundary of the range, confirming persistent selling pressure.

MACD is below the zero line, with negative momentum strengthening again. The Stochastic Oscillator has approached oversold territory, so a short-term technical rebound is possible before the decline resumes. However, as long as the index remains below the 65,280–65,300 area, sellers have the upper hand.

The main scenario suggests a further decline after a consolidation below the 64,350 support level, with the next targets at 63,850 and 63,650. An alternative scenario will come into play if the price returns above 65,300, creating conditions for a recovery towards 66,000.

JP 225 trading scenario for today

• Asset: JP 225
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 65,300 and 66,000
• Key support levels: 64,350 and 63,850

Trading scenario (Sell Stop)

A consolidation below the local support level of 64,350 would confirm continued downward momentum and create conditions for opening short positions.

• Current price: 64,683
• Entry level: 64,350
• Take profit: 63,650
• Stop loss: 64,700
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 11 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to the JP 225 downside scenario is a technical rebound after the Stochastic Oscillator moved into oversold territory. Lower US bond yields, stabilising oil prices, or a correction in the yen could provide additional support for the Japanese market. A return above 65,300 would weaken the current bearish scenario.

Summary

The JP 225 index is declining for the third consecutive session, maintaining a bearish bias. The JP 225 forecast for today, 10 September 2026, suggests a further decline towards 63,850 and then 63,650.

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