JP 225: PMI supports further gains

The JP 225 index has completed its correction and is poised to resume growth. The current price stands at 65,453.0. Find out more in our analysis for 1 October 2026.

JP 225 forecast: key takeaways

• The S&P Global Japan Services PMI stood at 51.6
• The Bank of Japan raised its key interest rate to 1.3%
• JP 225 forecast for 1 October 2026:

JP 225 fundamental analysis

The JP 225 forecast for today, 1 October 2026, takes into account that the decline in the S&P Global Japan Services PMI from 52.5 to 51.6 in September 2026 is a moderately negative signal for the Japanese stock market, but does not indicate a contraction in business activity. The index remains above the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction, so the services sector continues to grow, although at a slower pace. The broader Composite PMI also declined to 52.5, although S&P Global estimates that the reading still corresponds to fairly resilient growth in the Japanese economy.

For the JP 225 index, the initial reaction to such data could be moderately negative or neutral. A slowdown in the services sector reduces expectations for the pace of domestic demand growth and for the revenue and profits of companies focused primarily on Japanese consumers. However, the deterioration is not yet significant enough to suggest a meaningful change in the economic trend. Moreover, the manufacturing PMI stood at 54.1 in September and also remained well above the 50-point threshold.

An important factor for the JP 225 is the Bank of Japan's monetary policy. On 18 September, the regulator decided to raise its short-term interest rate target to 1.3%, with the new rate taking effect on 24 September. At the same time, the Bank of Japan stated that if the economy and inflation continue to develop in line with its outlook, it intends to keep raising the rate and gradually reduce the degree of monetary policy accommodation.

JP 225 technical analysis

On the D1 chart, JP 225 quotes have formed resistance at 67,320.0 and support at 63,685.0. The broader trend remains bullish. The correction has ended, with no signs of a trend reversal. However, the current rise is unlikely to lead to a new all-time high. The first upside target is 69,530.0.

At the same time, the JP 225 forecast also considers an alternative market scenario: quotes could form a corrective wave and move towards 60,440.0 as part of a trend reversal.

JP 225 trading scenario for today

• Asset: JP 225
• Timeframe: D1 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 67,320.0
• Key support levels: 62,685.0

Trading scenario (Buy Limit)

A consolidation of the JP 225 above the 67,320.0 resistance level would confirm the continuation of the upward wave and create conditions for opening long positions.

• Current price: 68,086.0
• Entry level: 67,420.0
• Take profit: 69,530.0
• Stop loss: 67,120.0
• Risk-to-reward ratio: more than 1:7

The trade idea is valid until 08:00 AM on 8 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The key risks for the JP 225 are linked to a possible further slowdown in business activity in the services sector and weaker domestic demand, which could worsen expectations for the revenue and profits of companies focused on Japanese consumers. Persistently high inflation remains an additional risk factor: if price growth remains sustained, the Bank of Japan may continue tightening monetary policy even against a backdrop of weaker economic data, increasing borrowing costs and putting pressure on equity valuations.

Summary

PMI declined, but the economy continues to expand, manufacturing remains strong, and the services index is still well above the 50-point threshold. Additional support for the index could come from a weaker yen and reduced concerns about excessively rapid rate hikes. From a technical analysis perspective, the JP 225 index could rise towards 69,530.0.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD forecast 2026–2027: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

The EURUSD outlook for 2026 and 2027: key levels on the daily chart, three trading scenarios and the policy gap between the Fed and the ECB that drives the pair.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

Where gold could trade in 2026: key levels, three trading scenarios with entry triggers and the forecasts from J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs.