US 30 trades sideways as earnings and data take centre stage

The US 30 is trading around 53,611, with NVIDIA's earnings report in focus.

US 30 forecast: key takeaways

• The market is focused on NVIDIA's earnings report
• The index is supported by lower oil prices and falling government bond yields
• US 30 forecast for 26 August 2026: 53,242 or 53,966

US 30 fundamental analysis

The US 30 settled flat at 53,611 on Wednesday. Investors are awaiting the latest PCE price index, a key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve.

NVIDIA will report earnings after the market closes. The focus will be on the resilience of demand related to artificial intelligence and the company's ability to maintain high growth rates.

On Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will speak at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium. However, the market does not expect him to provide a direct signal regarding the regulator's September decision.

The US stock market posted moderate gains on Tuesday, with technology companies leading the advance, particularly those linked to AI infrastructure. The market was supported by falling long-term US Treasury yields and lower oil prices, which slightly eased inflation concerns.

The US 30 outlook is moderate.

US 30 technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the US 30 began to recover after declining towards the 52,800 area and is now trading around 53,611. The price has returned above the middle Bollinger Band but remains below the local resistance level at 53,966. The broader range remains intact, while the current structure appears neutral-to-positive.

The nearest resistance level lies at 53,966, with the next ones at 54,324 and 54,681. The support level is located at 53,242, followed by 52,885 and 52,518. A sustained move above 53,966 would confirm increased buying pressure, while a return below 53,242 would shift the initiative back to sellers.

MACD has moved into positive territory, signalling a recovery in upward momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator is around the middle of its range and does not indicate overbought conditions, leaving room for further growth. The base case remains a move between 53,242 and 53,966 with a moderately positive bias.

The following scenarios can be considered for the US 30 index price forecast:

• Bearish US 30 forecast: a breakout below the 53,242 support level could send the index down to 52,885
• Bullish US 30 forecast: a breakout above the 53,966 resistance level could boost the index to 54,324

The scenarios remain valid until 8:00 AM (server time, UTC+3) on 28 August 2026.

Summary

The baseline scenario for the US 30 remains moderately positive. The index has recovered from local lows, MACD has moved into positive territory, while falling US Treasury yields and lower oil prices are easing pressure on the market. However, there has yet to be a sustained breakout from the range, with PCE data and NVIDIA's earnings report set to be the key drivers. Softer inflation and strong company results could support a breakout above 53,966, targeting 54,324. A higher PCE reading or disappointing earnings would revive the risk of a decline towards 53,242 and 52,885.

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