US 500: focus on oil and the future path of Fed rates

The US 500 returned after the weekend with a moderate decline near 7,711. The market is closely watching oil price movements.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

• The US 500 index may continue to rise, although sentiment after the long weekend does not look particularly strong
• The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week is estimated at around 60%
• US 500 forecast for 8 September 2026: 7,777

US 500 fundamental analysis

The US 500 index is declining moderately on Tuesday after the long holiday weekend. High oil prices remain in focus, supporting inflation risks and fuelling concerns about the future path of interest rates.

Oil prices are rising after the US and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend. Trade risks have added to pressure, with Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on approximately 20 billion USD worth of US goods taking effect on Tuesday.

In the money market, the likelihood of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike next week is estimated at around 60%. In the corporate sector, Uber has appointed banks for investor meetings ahead of its planned debut euro bond offering. Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk has halted two more trials of an experimental cardiovascular drug, marking another negative signal for the development program.

The US 500 outlook is moderately positive.

US 500 technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the US 500 remains in a sideways structure following the correction from the 7,816 level. The index is trading around 7,694 and has so far failed to return above the middle Bollinger Band. After falling to 7,674, buyers attempted to regain ground, but for a sustained upward momentum to resume, the price needs to break above the nearest resistance zone at 7,721–7,745.

The nearest support level is located at 7,674, followed by 7,650.5 and 7,626.5. The resistance level lies at 7,721.5, with the next ones at 7,745 and 7,769. A consolidation above 7,721.5 would improve the short-term picture and create conditions for further recovery, while a breakout below 7,674 would increase selling pressure and push the index back towards the lower part of the current range.

MACD is near the neutral level and does not yet show any clear directional momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator has turned upwards from the lower part of the range and risen above 50, supporting the likelihood of a local recovery. The baseline scenario remains movement within the 7,674–7,721.5 range with a neutral-to-positive bias.

US 500 trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Buy Stop)

A consolidation above the 7,737 resistance level would confirm continued upward momentum and create conditions for opening long positions in the US 500.

• Current price: 7,711
• Entry level: 7,738
• Take profit: 7,818
• Stop loss: 7,708
• Risk-to-reward ratio: approximately 1:2.7

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 9 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to the US 500 upside scenario remains a further rise in oil prices due to escalating conflict between the US and Iran. This would heighten inflation concerns and could boost expectations for a tighter Federal Reserve policy. Trade tensions with Canada add to pressure. A decline below 7,695 would be the first signal of a deteriorating technical picture. A breakout below 7,655 would invalidate the baseline upside scenario.

Summary

The US 500 index returned after the long weekend on a subdued note, but overall, there is a chance for continued gains. The US 500 forecast for today, 8 September 2026, suggests further growth towards the 7,777 target.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD forecast 2026–2027: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

EURUSD has recovered from the July lows and is trading near 1.1545 — back in bullish territory. The pair has reclaimed EMA65 on the daily, formed a bullish EMA crossover on H4, and the US-eurozone GDP gap has narrowed sharply (US 1.5% vs eurozone 1.0%). Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank both now target 1.2500 by year-end. A confirmed close above 1.1700 opens the path to 1.1805. We break down the key levels, three trading scenarios, and what the unprecedented 9-3 FOMC dissent vote means for EURUSD.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

Gold has reversed its downtrend and is trading near 4,360 USD, back above both EMA65 and EMA200. ETF flows turned positive in July with 3 billion USD of net inflows, and central banks bought 288.9 tonnes in Q2 — up 62% year-on-year. A breakout above 4,500 USD opens the path to 4,855 USD and the 5,597 USD all-time high. We break down the key levels, three trading scenarios with entry triggers, and what J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs are forecasting for gold in 2026.