US 500: AI optimism outweighs the Federal Reserve rate hike

The US 500 index has resumed its rise after a decline triggered by tighter US Federal Reserve monetary policy. The current price stands at 7,778.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

• Meta's new AI agent, Muse, has become the most downloaded free iPhone app in the US
• Arm forecasts the server CPU market to grow by more than 35% annually. AMD estimates the market potential at 220 billion USD
• US 500 forecast for 22 September 2026: 7,950

US 500 fundamental analysis

The Federal Reserve's decision to raise its interest rate to the 3.75–4.00% range is generally a restraining factor for the US stock market, but its impact cannot be viewed as exclusively negative. The decision contains two important signals. First, monetary policy is likely to remain relatively tight for considerably longer than the market had previously expected. Second, the Federal Reserve has simultaneously upgraded its assessment of the US economy. According to the regulator's official forecasts, real US GDP growth is expected to reach 2.3% in 2026.

For the US 500, the main negative factor is not so much the 25-basis-point rate hike itself as the change in expectations regarding future Federal Reserve policy. While investors had previously been able to expect a relatively rapid decline in borrowing costs, the new forecasts point to rates remaining close to 4% for considerably longer. This raises the required return on equity investments while making government bonds more attractive.

The US 500 outlook is positive.

US 500 technical analysis

On the D1 timeframe, the US 500 is trading in an uptrend after a correction. The index has the potential to retest its all-time high. If bullish momentum weakens, the price may form a short-term sideways range. However, a breakout above the upper boundary and a continuation of the uptrend could then follow.

The nearest support is around 7,505, while resistance has formed at 7,820. A breakout above this level would open the way for a rise towards 7,950. If the price breaks below support, the downside target could be 7,305.

US 500 trading scenario for today

• Asset: US 500
• Timeframe: D1 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 7,820
• Key support levels: 7,505

US 500 trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above resistance and consolidation of the US 500 above 7,820 would confirm continued buying pressure and create conditions for further growth.

• Current price: 7,778
• Entry level: 7,825
• Take profit: 7,950
• Stop loss: 7,805
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:3.5

The trade idea is valid until 08:00 AM on 29 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risks for the US 500 are persistently high inflation, further Federal Reserve rate hikes, and rising US bond yields. Additional pressure could emerge if the economy slows, consumer demand weakens, and corporate earnings deteriorate.

Summary

Overall, the Federal Reserve's decision is a moderately negative factor for the US 500, primarily because of the prospect of a longer period of high interest rates. However, this negative effect is partly offset by continued resilient economic growth and strong corporate investment. The US 500 forecast for today, 22 September 2026, does not rule out a further rise towards 7,950.

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