US 500: historically, quotes rise after midterm elections

Since 1950, the US 500 index has delivered an average return of 17.2% in the year following midterm elections, according to Silvia Insights experts. The price currently stands at 7,813.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

• Investors are awaiting inflation data on 14 October
• The yield on 30-year US Treasuries fell to 5.62%
• US initial jobless claims came in at 197 thousand
• US 500 forecast for 13 October 2026: 7,950

US 500 fundamental analysis

The US initial jobless claims data published on 8 October 2026 indicates that the US labour market remains resilient. The figure came in at 197 thousand claims versus a forecast of 200 thousand, down from the previous week's revised reading of 199 thousand. Therefore, the actual result surpassed market expectations, pointing to a relatively low pace of layoffs and no signs of a sharp deterioration in employment conditions.

The short-term impact of the release on the US 500 index can be assessed as neutral, bringing a moderately positive effect on corporate fundamentals, yet posing the risk of a negative price reaction driven by interest rate expectations. The positive aspect of the news is primarily that it reduces the likelihood of a sharp deterioration in the economic situation. At the same time, the difference between the actual reading and the forecast is only 3 thousand claims, so the release itself is not significant enough to establish a sustained direction for the stock market.

The US 500 outlook is positive.

US 500 technical analysis

On the D1 timeframe, the US 500 index maintains its upward momentum after completing the previous correction. The current technical outlook suggests potential for further gains and a new all-time high. At the same time, a temporary decline in buying activity could lead to the formation of a short-term sideways range, within which the index may consolidate before resuming growth. If positive market momentum persists, the most likely scenario remains a breakout above the range’s upper boundary followed by a continued upward move.

The nearest support level is located at 7,650, while the main resistance level has formed at 7,850. A sustained consolidation above 7,850 would further confirm increasing upward momentum and create conditions for further growth towards the 8,005 target. At the same time, an alternative scenario suggests a breakout below the 7,650 support level, which could indicate weakening buyer positions and trigger a deeper downward correction, with the nearest target at 7,505.

US 500 trading scenario for today

• Asset: US 500
• Timeframe: D1 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 7,850
• Key support levels: 7,650

Trading scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the resistance level and a consolidation above 7,850 would confirm continued buying pressure and open the door for further growth.

• Current price: 7,813
• Entry level: 7,855
• Stop loss: 7,835
• Take profit: 8,005
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:7.5

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 20 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risks for the US 500 index are linked to persistent inflationary pressures, possible further tightening of Federal Reserve monetary policy, and rising US government bond yields, which could reduce the investment appeal of equities. Additional pressure could come from slower economic growth, weaker corporate earnings, and heightened geopolitical tensions.

Summary

Thus, the release of US initial jobless claims data is a positive signal regarding the current state of the US economy, but it does not create unambiguous conditions for growth in the US 500 index. The low level of layoffs supports consumer demand, corporate earnings, and financial system resilience. At the same time, the absence of a noticeable weakening in the labour market reduces the need for monetary policy easing and may help keep interest rates high. If subsequent data shows a further decline in inflation, the US 500 could receive support from lower bond yields. The US 500 forecast for today, 13 October 2026, suggests further growth towards 7,950.

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