NVIDIA sends a strong market signal, but the Fed may deal US Tech another blow

US Tech analysis shows that NVIDIA's revenue outlook has increased the index's chances of continued growth. The US Tech is currently trading at 29,565.0.

US Tech forecast: key takeaways

• The market is awaiting the outcome of the Jackson Hole Symposium
• NVIDIA's strong revenue outlook confirmed that demand for AI infrastructure is increasing

US Tech fundamental analysis

The US Tech forecast for today, 28 August 2026, takes into account that after the decline, the price continues its upward trajectory and is testing the 29,565.0 level.

NVIDIA's strong revenue outlook confirmed that demand for AI infrastructure is growing. Against this backdrop, the technology sector strengthened noticeably, with the US Tech gaining around 1.6% in the previous session.

Today, investors' attention has shifted from NVIDIA's report to the first major speech by the Federal Reserve Chairman at Jackson Hole. The market is trying to understand what signals this may provide regarding the future path of interest rates. If the tone is hawkish, pressure on highly valued technology companies could increase.

July inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target, so a rate cut should not yet be expected. This is particularly important for the US Tech: the higher interest rates, the more expensive capital becomes and the less attractive technology companies' future cash flows appear.

Long-term US Treasury yields remain high due to inflation, rising government debt, and substantial spending on AI infrastructure. As a result, capital is being increasingly allocated between government bonds and technology assets.

NVIDIA's strong outlook temporarily eased concerns that the AI boom may be starting to slow. However, the large-scale investments by major technology companies require continued growth in revenue and profits. As a result, the market is increasingly sensitive to any hints that returns on AI investment could weaken.

The US Tech index forecast is based on the view that the fundamental picture remains broadly positive, primarily due to NVIDIA's strong outlook and resilient demand for AI infrastructure. However, Federal Reserve policy remains the key factor today: a hawkish tone from Warsh amid high inflation and Treasury yields could limit gains in the technology sector.

US Tech technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the US Tech has formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band and is trading around 29,565.0. Since the price is moving within an ascending channel, it could continue the upward wave as the pattern signal plays out, with the first upside target at 30,200.0.

At the same time, the US Tech forecast also considers an alternative market scenario: the US Tech could undergo a correction and move towards 29,300.0 before resuming growth.

• Current price: 29,565.0.
• Entry price: 29,745.0.
• Stop loss: 29,700.0.
• Take profit: 30,200.0.
• Risk-to-reward ratio: more than 1:5
• Entry level: 29,300.0.
• Stop loss: 29,340.0.
• Take profit: 29,030.0.
• Risk-to-reward ratio: more than 1:6

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 3 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Summary

The US Tech is currently being driven by two opposing factors. On the one hand, NVIDIA's strong results and high demand for AI infrastructure confirm that the sector still has a solid foundation for growth. This is what is keeping the index around 29,565.0. On the other hand, the key risk comes from the Federal Reserve: if the regulator maintains a hawkish tone amid high inflation and bond yields, interest in technology stocks could weaken, as expensive capital makes them less attractive.

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