EURUSD plummeted after the Nonfarm Payrolls

US employment statistics strengthened the USD, triggering the EURUSD pair to break below the psychological level of 1.1600. The rate currently stands at 1.1520. Find more details in our analysis for 8 June 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US Nonfarm Payrolls: previously at 115 thousand, currently at 172 thousand
• EURUSD forecast for 8 June 2026: 1.1480 and 1.1650

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that, after falling, the pair is testing April lows following the release of US employment statistics.

The May Nonfarm Payrolls release became a real shock to the market: the US economy created 172 thousand jobs, more than double the forecast of 85 thousand. This dispelled the last hopes for an imminent easing of Federal Reserve policy.

A strong labour market coupled with inflation driven by high oil prices creates a hawkish dilemma for the Fed. Fighting inflation is becoming the priority, and that means high rates and a strong dollar.

This week, the ECB and the Federal Reserve will hold meetings to discuss interest rate adjustments. The market expects a 0.25% hike from the ECB with 100% certainty, while the Fed is giving no hints at this stage and is maintaining a pause.

After a prolonged sideways movement, the EURUSD pair has undergone a tectonic shift over the past week. Strong US labour market data and a hawkish repricing of Fed expectations pushed the pair down to two-month lows, breaking the key support level of 1.1600. The ECB is preparing to raise rates on Thursday, but this move alone will not be enough to reverse the trend. The decisive factors will be US inflation data and Christine Lagarde’s rhetoric. As long as the price remains above the psychological level of 1.1500, the chance of a rebound remains in place, but bearish control remains dominant.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, the quotes may form an upward wave following the pattern signal. Since they have broken out of an ascending channel, the 1.1650 resistance level could be the upside target. A breakout above this level would open the door for continued upward momentum.

At the same time, today’s EURUSD forecast also suggests another market scenario, with quotes possibly continuing to fall and testing the 1.1480 support level. After rebounding, they may continue the uptrend.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: sideways
• Key resistance levels: 1.1590 and 1.1650
• Key support levels: 1.1480 and 1.1400

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the support level, with quotes consolidating below 1.1480, would indicate conditions are forming for opening short positions.

• Take Profit: 1.1400
• Stop Loss: 1.1505

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A return to the upper boundary of the ascending channel with a breakout above the 1.1590 resistance level would signal continued growth in EURUSD quotes.

• Take Profit: 1.1650
• Stop Loss: 1.1565

Risk factors

The main risk to the EURUSD downside scenario remains a possible increase in global risk appetite, which may weaken demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. An additional factor is the geopolitical backdrop; easing tensions will lead to a weaker USD and a higher EURUSD rate.

Summary

After the release of US employment statistics, the pair plummeted, breaking the psychological level of 1.1600. EURUSD technical analysis suggests growth towards 1.1650 after the correction.

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