EURUSD holds above the key level of 1.1580

The EURUSD pair maintains its upward momentum thanks to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with the rate currently at 1.1612. Discover more in our analysis for 15 June 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The US and Iran reached agreements that may lead to the end of military action in the Middle East
• The University of Michigan one-year inflation expectations index fell to 4.6% in June from 4.8% in May
• Slower inflation expectations strengthened expectations of a looser Federal Reserve monetary policy in the future
• EURUSD forecast for 15 June 2026: 1.1500

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate continues to strengthen after breaking confidently above the 1.1580 resistance level. The next target for buyers could be the 1.1665 area, where the nearest significant resistance level stands.

Reports that the US and Iran reached agreements that open the way to the end of military action in the Middle East supported the European currency. Market participants believe that regional tensions are gradually easing and that oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz may return to normal, which is improving market sentiment and reducing demand for safe-haven assets.

The latest US inflation expectations data also put additional pressure on the US dollar. According to the University of Michigan survey, the one-year inflation forecast fell to 4.6% in June 2026 from 4.8% a month earlier. Five-year inflation expectations also dropped to 3.4% from 3.9% in May. Slower inflation expectations are strengthening the case for softer Fed policy in the future and limiting the upside potential of the US currency.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD pair is rebounding from the upper boundary of the descending channel, indicating continued selling pressure. Despite buyers’ attempts to gain a foothold above the EMA-65, upward momentum has not yet developed steadily. The EURUSD forecast for today suggests the completion of the current bullish correction and a renewed decline, with a target at 1.1500.

The technical picture remains favourable for the downside scenario. The Stochastic Oscillator reached overbought territory and is forming a signal for a downward reversal, suggesting the likely end of the corrective rise. In addition, the indicator is rebounding from the descending resistance line, increasing the risks of a renewed downward move. A breakout below the lower boundary of an ascending channel, with the price consolidating below 1.1570, will confirm the bearish scenario.

An alternative scenario suggests stronger buying activity after a breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel and price consolidation above 1.1630. Such a signal will confirm the cancellation of the downside scenario and point to the potential for continued growth towards 1.1695.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H1 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1630 and 1.1695
• Key support levels: 1.1580 and 1.1500

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the lower boundary of the bullish channel, with quotes consolidating below 1.1570, would create conditions for opening short positions.

• Take Profit: 1.1500
• Stop Loss: 1.1590

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the upper boundary of the descending channel and a breakout above the 1.1630 level would indicate bullish momentum, with an upside target at 1.1695.

• Take Profit: 1.1695
• Stop Loss: 1.1575

Risk factors

The main risk factors for the EURUSD downside scenario remain a further improvement in the geopolitical backdrop and stronger risk appetite. An additional risk factor is a consolidation above 1.1630, which may break the bearish technical structure and generate bullish momentum towards 1.1695.

Summary

Technical analysis of EURUSD suggests a high probability of a renewed decline, with a downside target at 1.1500. However, a breakout above the 1.1630 resistance level would cancel the bearish scenario and open the way for growth towards 1.1695.

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