EURUSD remains under pressure and may decline towards 1.1060

Weak eurozone data and the Fed’s hawkish stance continue to weigh on EURUSD. The main scenario provides for a break of support at 1.1410 and a further decline in the pair towards 1.1060. More details are in our analysis for 19 June 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The Fed’s hawkish stance and expectations of a possible rate increase are supporting the US dollar
• Weak eurozone data on the current account and construction output are limiting the euro’s recovery
• EURUSD remains in a downward trend and is approaching support at 1.1410
• EURUSD forecast for 19 June 2026: 1.1385

Fundamental analysis

The fundamental analysis for 19 June 2026 shows that EURUSD remains under pressure and is trading around 1.1440. The main factor behind the pair’s decline remains the Fed’s hawkish stance: almost half of the regulator’s representatives allow for a rate increase by the end of the year. This has strengthened the dollar and pushed the euro down to its lowest levels in more than two months.

Yesterday’s statistics failed to change the balance of power. The eurozone current account surplus came in at 15.7 billion EUR against a forecast of 18.5 billion EUR, while construction output growth slowed to 0.57% month-on-month. In the US, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rose to 10.3 against a forecast of 9.8, while new orders, prices, and capital expenditure indicators improved noticeably. Jobless claims came out close to expectations, so overall the data continued to support the dollar.

The forecast for EURUSD today remains negative. A strong dollar and expectations of a Fed rate increase are preserving the risk of a further decline in the pair. Today, the US is observing the Juneteenth holiday, so reduced activity in the American market may limit movement, but as long as EURUSD remains below 1.1500, sellers retain the advantage.

Technical outlook

On the daily timeframe, EURUSD quotes are trading in a descending channel and are approaching the key support at 1.1410. The MACD indicator is in negative territory, which is increasing pressure on the pair. As a result, technical analysis of EURUSD points to a continued probability of a further decline in the quotes.

The main forecast for EURUSD today provides for a break of support at 1.1410 followed by a decline in the quotes towards 1.1060.

The alternative scenario should be considered only in the event of a breakout of resistance at 1.1620. If that happens, the EURUSD rate may rise to 1.1800.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: D1 (Short-term)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1620 and 1.1800
• Key support levels: 1.1410 and 1.1060

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A break of support at 1.1410 will strengthen bearish sentiment in EURUSD, as a result of which the quotes may decline to 1.1060.

• Take Profit: 1.1060
• Stop Loss: 1.1510

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout of resistance at 1.1620 will signal the end of the downward trend and growth in the quotes towards 1.1800.

• Take Profit: 1.1800
• Stop Loss: 1.1560

Risk factors

The key risk to the EURUSD downside scenario remains sustained consolidation of the quotes above 1.1620. This will coincide with a break of the descending trendline and will indicate the possible end of the downward trend. An additional risk factor is deterioration in US macroeconomic data, which may weaken support for the US dollar.

Summary

Technical analysis of EURUSD points to the continuation of the downward trend and a possible further fall in the EURUSD rate. The macroeconomic backdrop also supports further dollar strengthening, so the forecast for EURUSD remains negative.

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