EURUSD is getting support from easing inflation concerns

The EURUSD rate is correcting against the backdrop of a weaker US dollar and moderately positive US macroeconomic data. The current quote is 1.1385. More details are in our analysis for 26 June 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The US dollar came under pressure after the release of the PCE inflation report
• Inflation in the US remains significantly above the Fed’s 2% target
• The market estimates the probability of a rate change in September at around 46%
• EURUSD forecast for 26 June 2026: 1.1255

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is continuing to recover for the second trading session in a row, while support at 1.1335 has become a serious test for sellers. Pressure on the US dollar intensified after the latest PCE inflation report, which broadly matched market expectations. Although inflation still remains significantly above the Fed’s 2% target, the published data eased concerns about accelerating price pressure.

The Core PCE index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year in May, in line with the consensus forecast. By comparison, the April reading stood at 0.3% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year.

Additional pressure on the dollar came from comments by Fed officials. FOMC member Goolsbee noted the emergence of encouraging signs in inflation dynamics, but stressed that price pressure remains elevated. Williams, in turn, stated that the current level of interest rates appears sufficient to return inflation to the 2% target.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market estimates the probability of a rate increase in September at around 46%, reflecting the continuing uncertainty regarding the Fed’s next steps.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD rate is rising, but it still remains within a descending channel. Buyers are trying to strengthen pressure by consolidating above the EMA-65, but this move still lacks enough strength to change the current impulse. Despite the development of a corrective move, today’s EURUSD forecast suggests a resumption of the decline with a target at 1.1255.

The technical picture still favours sellers. The Stochastic Oscillator has reached the resistance lines and is forming signs of a bearish crossover, which increases the probability of a reversal. An additional confirmation of the downside scenario will come from a break of the lower boundary of the corrective upward channel and price consolidation below 1.1355.

The alternative scenario allows for continued growth in the event of a break of the upper boundary of the descending channel and consolidation above 1.1405. In this case, the bearish scenario will be cancelled, and the market will gain the potential for a deeper upward correction with a target at 1.1485.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H1 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1405 and 1.1485
• Key support levels: 1.1350 and 1.1315

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A break of the lower boundary of the corrective channel with price consolidation below 1.1355 will indicate stronger pressure from sellers and a resumption of the downward impulse.

• Take Profit: 1.1255
• Stop Loss: 1.1410

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the local resistance level at 1.1425 will signal stronger bullish correction with a target at 1.1485.

• Take Profit: 1.1485
• Stop Loss: 1.1390

Risk factors

The main risk to the EURUSD downside scenario is a break of the upper boundary of the descending channel and consolidation of the quotes above 1.1405, which will cancel the bearish scenario and strengthen the upward correction.

Summary

The currency pair remains in a phase of corrective recovery against the backdrop of a weaker US dollar, but EURUSD technical analysis points to a likely resumption of the decline towards 1.1255.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD forecast 2026–2027: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

The ECB holds rates at 2.15% while the Fed stays at 3.75% — and that divergence is the central driver of EURUSD in 2026. The pair is range-bound between 1.1400 and 1.1915, with Deutsche Bank targeting 1.2500 and Morgan Stanley calling for 1.3000 by year-end. We analyse the technicals, break down the macro factors, and outline three trading scenarios with specific entry levels.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026: predictions based on fundamental and technical analysis

Where is gold headed after pulling back from the all-time high of 5,597 USD? XAUUSD is consolidating near 4,518 USD between key levels 4,220 USD and 4,855 USD, with major banks targeting 5,243–6,200 USD by year-end. Read our comprehensive gold forecast: technical analysis across three timeframes, trading scenarios with specific entry levels, Fed policy and central bank demand outlook, and institutional predictions for 2026 and beyond.