EURUSD under pressure: no one wants to take risks

The EURUSD pair fell to 1.1398. The market is nervous ahead of the release of US economic data. Discover more in our analysis for 30 June 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair is reacting to the Middle East and awaiting US labour market data
• The market believes that the Federal Reserve will raise rates three more times before the end of the year
• EURUSD forecast for 30 June 2026: 1.1323 or 1.1430

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is falling to 1.1398 on Tuesday. The month ends with the US dollar on the rise: it has strengthened by more than 2% since the beginning of June, the best monthly result since July last year.

Expectations of further Fed policy tightening are supporting the dollar. The market is still pricing in three interest rate hikes by the end of the year, with the first one possible as early as September.

The main event for investors this week will be the release of the US labour market report, which may provide fresh guidance on the Federal Reserve’s further actions.

Talks between the US and Iran, which are resuming in Doha after the recent easing of tensions, also remain in focus. However, the prospects for a long-term agreement are uncertain, as the parties continue to disagree on security issues and control of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The EURUSD forecast is moderately negative.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair remains in a downtrend, although after reaching a local low near 1.1323, it has begun a corrective recovery. Quotes have risen above 1.1390, but remain below the middle Bollinger Band, while the bands themselves are still pointing downwards. This indicates that buyers are only recouping some of the previous losses without changing the overall market structure.

The technical picture remains moderately negative. The nearest resistance level is located in the 1.1415–1.1430 area, where the upper boundary of the current correction lies and where sellers were previously more active. The key support level stands at 1.1323. As long as the pair trades below the 1.1430 resistance level, the advantage remains with the US dollar, and the risk of a retest of the June lows remains.

The indicators reflect the completion of the downward momentum, but do not yet confirm a full-fledged reversal. MACD is gradually approaching the zero mark, signalling weaker selling pressure. The Stochastic Oscillator has turned downwards from overbought territory, increasing the likelihood of a new wave of selling after the current recovery ends. The baseline scenario remains consolidation in the 1.1323–1.1430 range, with the risk of a renewed downward movement still present.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1430 and 1.1470
• Key support levels: 1.1330 and 1.1323

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 1.1330 support level would confirm that the downtrend remains intact amid further Fed policy tightening, a strong US dollar, and a cautious attitude among investors towards risk assets.

• Take Profit: 1.1323
• Stop Loss: 1.1360

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 1.1430 resistance level would signal corrective growth and open the potential for a move towards 1.1470.

• Take Profit: 1.1470
• Stop Loss: 1.1400

Risk factors

The main risk to the EURUSD downside scenario remains the release of weaker-than-expected US labour market data, which may reduce expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. Progress in US-Iran talks may also support the euro if it improves overall risk appetite in global markets.

Summary

The EURUSD pair is declining in response to the worsening external environment. The EURUSD forecast for today, 30 June 2026, does not rule out consolidation within the 1.1323–1.1430 range.

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