EURUSD loses ground after the release of US economic data

The EURUSD rate moved lower after four days of growth amid strong US economic data and easing inflation in Germany, with the price currently at 1.1403. Discover more in our analysis for 1 July 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Job openings in the US rose to 7.594 million, reaching the highest level since May 2024
• Slower inflation in Germany reached the lowest level since February 2026
• US macroeconomic data strengthened expectations of economic resilience and supported the US dollar
• EURUSD forecast for 1 July 2026: 1.1265

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is correcting downwards after four consecutive trading sessions of gains. The bullish momentum has been capped by the 1.1430 resistance level, where buyers faced stronger selling pressure.

Strong macroeconomic data supported the US dollar. In May 2026, job openings in the US labour market increased by 9 thousand and reached 7.594 million, marking the highest level since May 2024. The figure significantly exceeded the market forecast of 6.822 million, confirming the resilience of the US labour market even amid rising energy prices caused by the conflict with Iran.

An additional positive signal for the US economy came from stronger business activity in the service sector. The general business activity index of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas rose to 2.9 points in June from −7.7 points a month earlier, indicating a recovery in sector activity.

German inflation data added to pressure on the euro. According to the preliminary estimate, annual consumer price growth slowed to 2.3% in June from 2.6% in May, coming in below the market forecast of 2.6%. This is the lowest inflation level since February this year.

As a result, robust US labour market and business activity data, together with easing inflation in Germany, are strengthening the US dollar and making today’s EURUSD forecast bearish.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD rate is correcting within an ascending channel, but sellers continue to hold quotes below the EMA-65, maintaining control over the market. Today’s EURUSD forecast suggests further downward movement with a target at 1.1265.

The technical picture remains favourable for sellers. The Stochastic Oscillator moved out of oversold territory and tested the descending resistance line, forming a signal for the decline to resume. A breakout below the lower boundary of the corrective channel, followed by price consolidation below 1.1385, would further confirm the bearish scenario.

An alternative scenario suggests renewed growth if the price breaks above the upper boundary of the descending channel and consolidates above 1.1445. In this case, the current downside signal will be cancelled, and the likelihood of a deeper upward correction will increase, with the nearest target for buyers at 1.1525.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1430 and 1.1505
• Key support levels: 1.1380 and 1.1335

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the corrective channel’s lower boundary and consolidation below 1.1380 would create conditions for opening short positions and indicate the completion of the bullish correction in EURUSD.

• Take Profit: 1.1265
• Stop Loss: 1.1410

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the upper boundary of the long-term descending channel, with the price consolidating above 1.1445, would signal a bullish correction.

• Take Profit: 1.1525
• Stop Loss: 1.1395

Risk factors

Risks to the bearish scenario include a possible weakening of the US dollar amid lower expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high. In addition, consolidation above 1.1445 will signal a deeper upward correction towards 1.1525.

Summary

Sellers have the upper hand in EURUSD, as robust US macroeconomic data is supporting demand for the US dollar, while slower inflation in Germany is putting pressure on the euro. Consolidation below 1.1385 would confirm the downward move in the EURUSD pair, with a target at 1.1265.

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