EURUSD is trapped: the dollar weakens, but the euro finds no support

Weak US labour market data is supporting the euro, with the EURUSD rate currently at 1.1420. Find out more in our analysis for 6 July 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The US labour market is weakening
• Eurozone inflation slowed to 2.8% in June
• EURUSD forecast for 6 July 2026: 1.1480 or 1.1370

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that the pair is trading around 1.1420, forming a correction after growth.

The main restraining factor for further dollar strengthening was US labour market data published last week. The June Nonfarm Payrolls report showed that the economy created 57 thousand new jobs, almost twice below the forecast of 140 thousand. At the same time, the figures for previous months were revised, suggesting a contracting labour market.

The market revised its expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy, with the likelihood of a rate hike this year falling to zero and the market now expecting an interest rate cut.

The euro, meanwhile, is not receiving a confident signal for growth. The reason lies in weak data: eurozone inflation slowed to 2.8% in June, while the core HICP unexpectedly fell to 2.4%, below the forecast of 2.6%. This weakened expectations of further ECB interest rate hikes, depriving the euro of its main monetary advantage and forcing bulls to act cautiously.

The EURUSD rate is stuck in a trap. Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are pushing the pair downwards by supporting the dollar as a safe haven. At the same time, weak US labour market data and a shift in Federal Reserve rate expectations towards a pause are providing support for the euro.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair formed an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, quotes may continue an upward wave following the signal, with the upside target at the 1.1480 resistance level. A rebound from this level will open the way for continued downward momentum.

At the same time, today’s EURUSD forecast also suggests another scenario. Quotes may continue to fall and test the 1.1370 support level. After breaking it, they could maintain their downward trajectory.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1480 and 1.1505
• Key support levels: 1.1370 and 1.1320

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 1.1480 would confirm a continued uptrend following weak US labour market data and lower expectations of further Fed policy tightening. This will open the potential for continued growth.

• Take Profit: 1.1505
• Stop Loss: 1.1450

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 1.1370 support level would signal the end of the current correction and renewed buying pressure on the EURUSD pair.

• Take Profit: 1.1320
• Stop Loss: 1.1390

Risk factors

The risks to the EURUSD growth scenario are linked to a possible recovery in demand for the US dollar in the event of stronger US macroeconomic data or renewed expectations of further Fed rate hikes. More hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials could further pressure the euro.

Summary

Following attempts to recover, the euro is once again losing ground despite the weakening US labour market. EURUSD technical analysis suggests growth towards 1.1480.

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