EURUSD declines after failing to break above the 1.1470 resistance level

The EURUSD pair is undergoing a moderate correction, as market participants continue to analyse the latest economic data from the US. The rate currently stands at 1.1447. Discover more in our analysis for 17 July 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US retail sales rose by 0.2% in June compared to the previous month
• US initial jobless claims fell by 8 thousand to 208 thousand
• The market has virtually ruled out a Federal Reserve rate hike at the next meeting
• EURUSD forecast for 17 July 2026: 1.1315

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is correcting downwards after failing to consolidate above the 1.1470 resistance level. The macroeconomic statistics published this week showed that US consumer inflation rose less than expected in June, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly declined. This data strengthened market confidence that the Federal Reserve may not rush into further interest rate hikes.

Consumer activity data provided additional support for the US dollar. Retail sales rose by 0.2% in June compared to the previous month, fully matching analysts’ expectations. At the same time, the May reading was revised upwards from 0.9% to 1.0%, indicating that domestic demand remains robust.

The labour market also sent a positive signal for the US economy. Initial jobless claims fell by 8 thousand last week to 208 thousand, while analysts had expected an increase to 217 thousand. Revised data for the previous week also came in better than the initial estimate, at 216 thousand instead of 215 thousand.

Despite robust consumer activity and labour market data, investors are largely ruling out the possibility of a Fed rate hike at the next meeting. At the same time, expectations regarding possible policy tightening in September remain mixed, which continues to limit the US dollar’s strengthening potential.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD rate is correcting within a descending channel, but quotes remain above the EMA-65, indicating a gradual increase in buying activity. Nevertheless, the overall technical picture still favours the sellers, so today’s EURUSD forecast suggests a downward move with a target at 1.1315.

An additional signal in favour of a continued decline comes from the Stochastic Oscillator, which turned downwards near the resistance line, pointing to weaker upward momentum. A breakout below the lower boundary of the corrective channel, followed by consolidation below the 1.1425 support level, would further confirm the bearish scenario, opening the way for a further decline.

An alternative scenario suggests a recovery in upward momentum if the price confidently breaks above the upper boundary of the descending channel and consolidates above 1.1490. This signal will reverse the current bearish scenario and confirm that the initiative has shifted to buyers. In this case, the next upside target would be 1.1605.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1475 and 1.1605
• Key support levels: 1.1425 and 1.1365

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the lower boundary of the bullish corrective channel, with the price consolidating below 1.1425, would confirm renewed downward momentum and create conditions for opening short positions.

• Take Profit: 1.1305
• Stop Loss: 1.1505

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel, followed by consolidation above 1.1505, would indicate the end of the decline and the formation of a bullish impulse.

• Take Profit: 1.1605
• Stop Loss: 1.1465

Risk factors

The main risk to the bearish EURUSD scenario remains consolidation above the 1.1490 resistance level, which will indicate stronger buyer activity and the possibility of an upward movement. Continued weakening of the US dollar amid expectations of a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy remains an additional threat to sellers.

Summary

The EURUSD rate retains the potential for further decline within the descending channel, despite holding above the EMA-65, as technical indicators point to weakening upward momentum. A breakout below the 1.1425 support level will increase selling pressure and open the way to 1.1315.

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