The US dollar loses ground, the Fed to decide EURUSD’s fate

Easing geopolitical tensions are supporting the euro and driving the EURUSD pair higher, with the rate currently at 1.1410. Find out more in our analysis for 27 July 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The highlight of the week is the Federal Reserve meeting
• Easing geopolitical tensions have reduced demand for the US dollar
• EURUSD forecast for 27 July 2026: 1.1475 and 1.1370

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that the pair continues to rise after testing the 1.1370 support level and is currently testing the 1.1410 mark.

The week began positively for the euro as demand for the US dollar declined following reports of a temporary pause in the military confrontation between the US and Iran. Falling oil prices reduced inflation risks and prompted the market to partially scale back expectations of imminent Fed policy tightening, allowing the euro to strengthen against the US currency.

The main event of the week is the Federal Reserve meeting. Interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, but comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh on the outlook for September could significantly impact the market and trigger increased volatility in the EURUSD rate. Any signals that restrictive policy will be maintained could restore support for the US dollar.

In addition to the Federal Reserve meeting, preliminary US Q2 GDP data and new inflation indicators will be released this week. These reports could influence interest rate expectations and determine the further allocation of capital between the US dollar and the euro.

The easing of geopolitical tensions has pushed oil prices lower and dampened demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. However, the pair’s further direction will depend almost entirely on the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting and the US regulator’s signals regarding the future interest rate path.

Technical outlook

On the EURUSD H4 chart, the price formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, the pair continues to form an upward wave as the signal develops, with the upside target at the 1.1475 resistance level. A breakout above this mark would open the way for an uptrend.

At the same time, today’s EURUSD forecast also considers an alternative scenario. The pair may form a corrective wave and test the 1.1370 support level before resuming its rise.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1475 and 1.1550
• Key support levels: 1.1370 and 1.1325

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 1.1475 resistance level would indicate increased buying pressure and continued upward momentum, with a target at 1.1550.

• Take Profit: 1.1550
• Stop Loss: 1.1450

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 1.1370 support level would indicate a continued correction.

• Take Profit: 1.1325
• Stop Loss: 1.1390

Risk factors

The main risk to the EURUSD bullish scenario remains buyers’ ability to break above the 1.1475 resistance level. More dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and a weaker USD could provide additional support for the euro.

Summary

The euro continues to strengthen ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for 28–29 July. EURUSD technical analysis suggests a rise towards 1.1475.

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