Euro under pressure: can EURUSD rebound from 1.1550?

Weak US employment data failed to provide significant support for the euro, with the rate currently at 1.1550. Find out more in our analysis for 10 August 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Nonfarm Payrolls: previously at 20 thousand, currently at −23 thousand
• The ECB still has no compelling reason for a sharp change in monetary policy
• EURUSD forecast for 10 August 2026: 1.1580

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that the pair is forming a corrective wave after its rise and is testing the 1.1550 level.

The weak US Nonfarm Payrolls report for the previous period caught the market by surprise. Instead of the expected 20 thousand, the figure came in at −23 thousand, indicating a deterioration in conditions. However, the July employment data still supported the dollar, with market participants currently assessing the likelihood of an imminent Federal Reserve policy easing more cautiously. For the EURUSD pair, this means the US interest rate advantage remains in place and continues to weigh on the euro.

The ECB still has no compelling reason for a drastic change in monetary policy. Inflation risks continue to weigh on the euro, while the eurozone economy remains vulnerable to high energy prices. In its June forecast, the ECB projected an average euro exchange rate of around 1.1700 in 2026.

For the euro, it is now particularly important whether the European economy can continue to recover and gradually narrow the gap in growth rates with the US. A decline in energy-related risks could further bolster the currency if the oil market finally stabilises. This would remove one of the most painful pressures on the European economy.

The fundamental analysis for 10 August 2026 takes into account that the dollar’s main support remains the US interest rate advantage and a stronger economic outlook. The euro, in turn, is supported by the relative resilience of the eurozone economy and the fact that there is no need for the ECB to ease policy sharply. In the coming days, the key focus will be on US inflation data and new signals from the Federal Reserve.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair formed a Hanging Man reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. At this stage, the price continues to form a corrective wave as the signal plays out, with a potential downside target at the 1.1520 support level. A rebound from this level would open the way for renewed upward momentum.

At the same time, today’s EURUSD forecast also suggests an alternative scenario. The pair could continue its upward wave and test the 1.1580 resistance level without first testing support.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1580 and 1.1615
• Key support levels: 1.1520 and 1.1445

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the 1.1580 resistance level would add to buying pressure and trigger further EURUSD growth.

• Take Profit: 1.1615
• Stop Loss: 1.1560

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A return within the descending channel, with the price consolidating below 1.1520, would indicate the end of the rise and trigger a bearish correction in the EURUSD pair.

• Take Profit: 1.1445
• Stop Loss: 1.1540

Risk factors

The main risks to the EURUSD upside scenario remain the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy actions and actual US inflation data. An additional negative factor would be a breakout below the 1.1520 support level, which would indicate weakening buying pressure and increase the likelihood of the pair declining towards 1.1445.

Summary

Following the Nonfarm Payrolls release, the euro received support and strengthened, but as the initial euphoria over the data faded, the EURUSD rate began to form a correction. EURUSD technical analysis suggests a correction towards the 1.1520 support level before further growth.

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