EURUSD pauses: strength will be needed tomorrow

The EURUSD pair fell to 1.1542. The market is conserving energy ahead of Wednesday’s data. Find out more in our analysis for 11 August 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair is consolidating after active moves and is awaiting Wednesday’s releases
• The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike is 51%, up from 44% previously
• EURUSD forecast for 11 August 2026: 1.1510 or 1.1581

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate corrected towards 1.1542. Investors continue to assess the outlook for Federal Reserve policy ahead of the release of key inflation data following the weak July labour market report.

US consumer inflation data will be released on Wednesday, followed by the Producer Price Index on Thursday. The market currently estimates the likelihood of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in September at around 51%, up from 44% a day earlier.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said that several rate hikes may be needed to bring inflation back to the 2% target, supporting expectations for tighter monetary policy.

Another factor is the uncertainty surrounding a possible US-Iran agreement to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. With no clarity yet, markets are closely monitoring inflation risks and the interest rate outlook.

The EURUSD forecast is neutral.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair retains its bullish structure after the strong momentum at the end of July, but has consolidated near 1.1543 in recent sessions. The price remains close to the middle Bollinger Band and below local highs, so short-term momentum has weakened noticeably, although buyers still hold the upper hand.

The nearest resistance level is located in the 1.1565–1.1581 zone. Consolidation above 1.1581 would confirm continued growth and allow the pair to reach new local highs. The first support level is at 1.1510, followed by 1.1484 and the key 1.1454 level. As long as the EURUSD rate remains above 1.1510, the current consolidation looks more like a pause within the upward move.

MACD remains in positive territory, but the histogram is narrowing, indicating a loss of bullish momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator has fallen below 20 and is in oversold territory, increasing the likelihood of another rebound. The baseline scenario remains trading within the 1.1510–1.1581 range with a moderately positive bias.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1581 and 1.1615
• Key support levels: 1.1510 and 1.1484

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 1.1581 resistance level would confirm that the EURUSD pair has broken out of its current consolidation and resumed its upward move.

• Take Profit: 1.1615
• Stop Loss: 1.1560

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 1.1510 support level would indicate weakening buying pressure and a correction towards the next support level.

• Take Profit: 1.1484
• Stop Loss: 1.1530

Risk factors

The main risk to the EURUSD bullish scenario remains US inflation data and changes in Fed policy expectations. Higher inflation would increase the likelihood of a September rate hike and support the dollar. A loss of the 1.1510 support level would be an additional negative signal for the pair, while weak price data could help buyers gain a foothold above 1.1581.

Summary

The EURUSD pair appears resilient although it is currently consolidating. The EURUSD forecast for today, 11 August 2026, does not rule out range-bound trading between 1.1510 and 1.1581.

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