EURUSD corrects ahead of PCE index release

The EURUSD pair is extending its downward correction as volatility declines ahead of the release of the key US PCE inflation indicator. The rate currently stands at 1.1663. For more details, see our analysis for 26 August 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The main reason for the subdued market activity is the upcoming release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures price index
• The consensus forecast among analysts expects the core PCE to come in at 3.3% year-on-year
• EURUSD forecast for 26 August 2026: 1.1770

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate has been correcting lower for the fifth consecutive trading session after buyers failed to overcome a strong resistance level at 1.1695. The current decline in volatility is directly linked to expectations surrounding the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, a key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve.

The consensus forecast among analysts suggests that the core index will stand at 3.3% year-on-year, still significantly above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2.0%.

The data will be released ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's debut speech at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday. Market participants are currently pricing in only one 25-basis-point hike in the benchmark interest rate by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, the US dollar remains under broad pressure as investors continue to assess the long-term implications of the US Treasury's expanded government bond buyback program. Markets are increasingly concerned that Bessent's plan may provide only temporary relief while simultaneously triggering further systemic weakening of the US dollar.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD rate is undergoing a correction but remains within an ascending channel. Sellers have so far failed to extend the decline after a breakout below the support level. Today's EURUSD forecast suggests a rebound from the lower boundary of the ascending channel and a rise towards 1.1770.

An additional signal comes from the Stochastic Oscillator. The oscillator values have reached overbought territory and require a downward move, confirming the current short-term price decline, after which bullish momentum is expected to resume. A breakout above the upper boundary of the short-term descending channel, with the price consolidating above the 1.1685 level, would confirm the bullish EURUSD scenario for today.

At the same time, the risk of an alternative scenario remains if the price continues to decline. If sellers gain a foothold below the lower boundary of the bullish channel and break the 1.1640 support level, this would signal weakening buying pressure. In this case, the EURUSD pair could continue to fall towards the nearest target at 1.1545.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H1 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1680 and 1.1715
• Key support levels: 1.1645 and 1.1595

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the upper boundary of the descending corrective channel, followed by consolidation above 1.1685, would create conditions for opening long positions and signal the end of the bearish correction.

• Current price: 1.1663
• Entry price: 1.1685
• Stop loss: 1.1650
• Take profit: 1.1775
• Risk-to-reward ratio: more than 1:2

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the lower boundary of the ascending channel would indicate increasing bearish pressure, while consolidation below 1.1615 would point to a continued corrective movement.

• Entry level: 1.1620
• Stop loss: 1.1650
• Take profit: 1.1525
• Risk-to-reward ratio: more than 1:3

The trade idea is valid until midnight on 27 August 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to the bullish scenario is an unexpectedly high actual reading for the core PCE price index, significantly above the 3.3% forecast. Such a scenario would force Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh to adopt a hawkish stance in Jackson Hole, triggering aggressive buying of the US dollar.

Summary

The current EURUSD correction is temporary, as traders have taken defensive positions and reduced activity in anticipation of the PCE inflation indicator and the Federal Reserve chairman’s policy speech.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD forecast 2026–2027: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

EURUSD has recovered from the July lows and is trading near 1.1545 — back in bullish territory. The pair has reclaimed EMA65 on the daily, formed a bullish EMA crossover on H4, and the US-eurozone GDP gap has narrowed sharply (US 1.5% vs eurozone 1.0%). Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank both now target 1.2500 by year-end. A confirmed close above 1.1700 opens the path to 1.1805. We break down the key levels, three trading scenarios, and what the unprecedented 9-3 FOMC dissent vote means for EURUSD.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

Gold has reversed its downtrend and is trading near 4,360 USD, back above both EMA65 and EMA200. ETF flows turned positive in July with 3 billion USD of net inflows, and central banks bought 288.9 tonnes in Q2 — up 62% year-on-year. A breakout above 4,500 USD opens the path to 4,855 USD and the 5,597 USD all-time high. We break down the key levels, three trading scenarios with entry triggers, and what J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs are forecasting for gold in 2026.