EURUSD consolidates above the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern

The EURUSD pair is rising as investors await tomorrow’s ECB meeting and Friday’s US inflation data release. The rate currently stands at 1.1640. Find out more in our analysis for 9 September 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The ECB meeting scheduled for tomorrow is the main driver for the European currency
• Market participants are almost fully pricing in a 25-basis-point ECB interest rate hike
• EURUSD forecast for 9 September 2026: 1.1705

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is rising after buyers broke above a local resistance level at 1.1635. Prices have now consolidated above the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern, increasing the likelihood of further growth towards 1.1705. Today’s EURUSD outlook remains bullish.

Traders are awaiting tomorrow’s ECB meeting, which remains the main driver for the euro. The market is almost fully pricing in a 25-basis-point ECB rate hike, as rising oil prices increase inflation risks. However, the key factor for the euro will be not so much the rate decision itself as Christine Lagarde’s rhetoric and the regulator’s updated economic forecasts. If the ECB signals that rising energy costs may require further monetary tightening, this would provide additional support for the euro.

Overall, the market’s attention this week is also focused on the US consumer price data for August, due on Friday. Inflation data could influence expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s future moves at its meeting next week. Analysts expect annual inflation in August to remain at 3.4%.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD pair is on the rise after breaking above the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern. Today’s EURUSD forecast suggests continued growth towards 1.1705.

Analysis of the Stochastic Oscillator provides an additional signal in favour of further upside. The oscillator has consolidated above its resistance line, confirming increased bullish momentum. A successful retest of the Triangle pattern’s upper boundary as support would confirm today’s bullish EURUSD scenario.

At the same time, there is a risk of an alternative scenario if the price breaks below the local support level at 1.1625. If sellers push the price back inside the Triangle pattern, this would signal easing bullish pressure and invalidate the bullish scenario. In this case, the EURUSD rate could continue to decline towards the nearest target at 1.1575.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1660 and 1.1705
• Key support levels: 1.1635 and 1.1605

EURUSD trading scenario for today

Main scenario (Buy Limit)

A rebound from the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern would indicate the end of consolidation and the start of a move towards the pattern’s target 1.1705.

• Current price: 1.1640
• Entry level: 1.1635
• Stop loss: 1.1615
• Take profit: 1.1705
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:3.5

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 10 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to today’s bullish scenario is trader uncertainty ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting, which could prompt major market participants to lock in profits at current local highs. Position adjustments ahead of the key event could quickly push the EURUSD rate back below 1.1635 and trigger renewed consolidation.

Summary

The EURUSD pair’s consolidation above the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern and a breakout above the 1.1635 resistance level indicate prevailing bullish sentiment, with the potential for a move towards the 1.1705 target.

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