EURUSD prepares for another test of 1.1455 support

EURUSD remains under selling pressure amid a stronger US dollar and persistent geopolitical risks. The current price is 1.1475. Find out more in our analysis for 21 September 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike in October is estimated at 53.1%
• Key EURUSD resistance is located at 1.1495
• EURUSD forecast for 21 September 2026: 1.1365

Fundamental analysis

EURUSD is declining after two days of gains. Sellers are preparing for another test of the 1.1455 support level. The pair remains under pressure as the US dollar strengthens following the Federal Reserve's 25-basis-point rate hike and signals that further monetary tightening remains possible. The market estimates the probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike in October at around 53.1%, limiting the euro's recovery potential.

Geopolitical risks remain an additional source of pressure. Continued tensions in the Middle East support demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, while the European currency remains vulnerable amid concerns about increasing geopolitical pressure on Europe. At the same time, lower oil prices at the start of the week have slightly improved sentiment in global markets and limited demand for the USD.

Investors are also monitoring comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde after the European regulator raised its rate to 2.50%. Lagarde previously indicated that further decisions would depend on a broad range of economic indicators rather than solely on rising energy prices. Today's EURUSD forecast is bearish.

Technical outlook

EURUSD is correcting within a Triangle pattern. The price remains below the EMA-65 line, indicating that selling pressure persists. Today's EURUSD forecast suggests a continuation of the downward move towards the 1.1365 target.

The Stochastic Oscillator provides an additional bearish signal. Its readings are rebounding from the descending resistance line, confirming that selling pressure remains. A short-term correction is still possible, but for now it does not change the overall bearish scenario. A breakout below the lower boundary of the Triangle pattern, followed by consolidation below 1.1460, would confirm the decline. In this case, sellers would receive a signal for a further downward move.

The alternative scenario assumes a breakout above the 1.1495 resistance level. Consolidation above this level would indicate weakening selling pressure and a move above the upper boundary of the descending channel. In this case, EURUSD could continue recovering towards the nearest target at 1.1585.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H1 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1495 and 1.1525
• Key support levels: 1.1460 and 1.1405

EURUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the lower boundary of the Triangle pattern, followed by consolidation below 1.1460, would indicate stronger selling pressure and create conditions for opening short positions with a target at 1.1365.

• Current price: 1.1475
• Entry level: 1.1460
• Take Profit: 1.1365
• Stop Loss: 1.1485
• Risk-to-reward ratio: above 1:3.8

The trade idea is valid until 08:00 AM on 22 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to the bearish EURUSD scenario remains a possible strengthening of the euro following comments from ECB officials and Christine Lagarde if they signal that tight monetary policy will be maintained.

Summary

EURUSD technical analysis indicates that selling pressure remains in place, while a breakout below 1.1460 would confirm the bearish scenario towards the 1.1365 target.

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