EURUSD prepares to break below 1.1455 support

EURUSD has entered a local sideways trend, while the broader trend remains bearish. The current price is 1.1463. Find out more in our analysis for 22 September 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike in October is estimated at 53.1%
• Key EURUSD resistance is located at 1.1495
• EURUSD forecast for 22 September 2026: 1.1380

Fundamental analysis

The fundamental backdrop for EURUSD currently remains largely in favour of the US dollar. The key factor was the Federal Reserve's September decision to raise the interest rate to a range of 3.75–4.00%. Expectations of further monetary tightening are providing additional support to the dollar. US PCE inflation remains at 3.7%, while domestic demand and economic activity remain resilient.

The European Central Bank is also pursuing tighter policy. At its 10 September meeting, the ECB raised its key interest rates by 25 basis points, citing persistent inflationary pressure. The regulator expects average eurozone inflation of 3.0% in 2026, while its economic growth forecast is only 0.9%. As a result, the ECB faces a more challenging situation: it needs to fight inflation while economic growth is significantly weaker than in the US.

Energy remains an additional risk factor for the European currency. Wholesale natural gas prices in Europe have risen significantly compared with last year, while the ECB notes that higher gas prices are now feeding through into consumer inflation more quickly. As a result, eurozone inflation could remain above target for longer. Today's EURUSD forecast is bearish.

Technical outlook

On the D1 chart, the key resistance level is located around 1.1655, while support has formed at 1.1460. On the H4 timeframe, support is almost aligned with the daily level and lies near 1.1455, while the nearest resistance is at 1.1545. The overall technical picture remains predominantly bearish, so the main scenario suggests a further decline in EURUSD. A period of consolidation and sideways trading is also possible before the decline resumes.

The alternative scenario currently has a lower probability. Consolidation above the 1.1545 resistance level would indicate weakening selling pressure and could create conditions for a further recovery in the pair. In this case, the nearest upside target would be the 1.1595 area.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1545 and 1.1655
• Key support levels: 1.1455 and 1.1460

EURUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the support level, followed by consolidation below 1.1455, would indicate stronger selling pressure and create conditions for opening short positions with a target at 1.1380.

• Current price: 1.1463
• Entry level: 1.1450
• Take Profit: 1.1380
• Stop Loss: 1.1485
• Risk-to-reward ratio: above 1:3.2

The trade idea is valid until 08:00 AM on 23 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risks for EURUSD are linked to shifts in expectations for Federal Reserve and ECB monetary policy. Higher inflation in the US, strong macroeconomic data, and further Federal Reserve rate hikes could strengthen the dollar and increase pressure on the pair. At the same time, a slowdown in the US economy, a weaker labour market, or a more dovish Federal Reserve stance could support a recovery in the euro. Additional risk factors include rising energy prices and a deterioration in the eurozone economic outlook.

Summary

Fundamental and technical factors continue to favour a further decline in EURUSD. The Federal Reserve's more hawkish stance, the resilience of the US economy, and expectations of additional rate hikes are supporting the dollar, while the eurozone economy is facing elevated inflation, high energy costs, and relatively weak growth at the same time.

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