EURUSD under Fed pressure as US inflation risks reshape market expectations

The euro continues to lose ground as the USD strengthens. The current price is 1.1391. Find out more in our analysis for 25 September 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The US Services Purchasing Managers Index rose to 58.7
• The Eurozone Consumer Price Index came in at 3.2%
• EURUSD forecast for 25 September 2026: 1.1330

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that the main factor weighing on the pair remains the shift in expectations for US monetary policy. On 16 September, the Federal Reserve raised the target rate range by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%, stressing that inflation remains elevated while economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace. The median September projection of FOMC members puts the rate at around 4.1% by the end of 2026, meaning there is still room for further policy tightening.

The dollar received additional support from preliminary US PMI data released on 23 September. The S&P Global Composite PMI rose from 56.0 to 58.4, reaching its highest level in more than five years. At the same time, companies reported that cost growth accelerated to almost a four-year high. This means the US economy is still combining strong growth with persistent inflationary pressure, allowing the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance.

The situation for the euro is not entirely negative either. On 10 September, the ECB raised rates by 25 basis points: the deposit rate increased to 2.50%, while the main refinancing operations rate rose to 2.65%. The regulator expects average eurozone inflation of 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027, and only 2.1% in 2028. Therefore, the ECB's tightening cycle is probably not yet over.

The fundamental analysis for 25 September 2026 takes into account that strong eurozone PMI data and persistent inflation are limiting the euro's downside potential. Therefore, the fundamental picture suggests not an uninterrupted decline in EURUSD, but continued pressure on the pair with periodic and fairly strong corrections.

Technical outlook

On the D1 chart, EURUSD continues to develop a downtrend. The pair has fallen to its lowest levels since mid-summer this year. A minor correction is likely to form before the decline resumes. If the price fails to break above the local resistance at 1.1455, the decline is expected to continue. The current resistance level is located at 1.1490, while support is at 1.1370. This support is highly likely to be broken, with 1.1330 as the target. Consolidation may then follow.

At the same time, today's EURUSD forecast also allows for another scenario. The pair could rise above 1.1455 and break through resistance. In this case, the upside target could be 1.1525. This would mark a broader shift in the trend to bullish.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance level: 1.1490
• Key support level: 1.1370

EURUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below the 1.1370 support level would confirm the continuation of the downtrend and create conditions for opening short positions.

• Current price: 1.1391
• Entry level: 1.1365
• Take Profit: 1.1340
• Stop Loss: 1.1380
• Risk-to-reward ratio: above 1:3

The trade idea is valid until 23:00 PM on 25 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to the bearish EURUSD scenario would be a further easing of inflationary pressure in the US amid falling oil prices. This could reduce expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes and weaken the dollar. An additional factor could be an interest-rate increase by the ECB.

Summary

The prospect of another Federal Reserve interest-rate hike is putting additional pressure on the euro. At the same time, EURUSD technical analysis suggests a correction towards the 1.1415 level before the decline resumes.

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