EURUSD loses ground amid hawkish Federal Reserve expectations

The EURUSD pair has resumed its decline, with traders focusing on the 1.1360 support level. The rate currently stands at 1.1380. For more details, see our analysis for 28 September 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US consumer inflation expectations rose in September
• The market estimates the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October at 69.2%
• Key US inflation and labour market data will be released this week
• EURUSD forecast for 28 September 2026: 1.1305

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is declining after a correction that lasted for two consecutive trading sessions. The price is actively testing the 1.1360 support level; a breakout below this mark could accelerate the downward move and strengthen bearish momentum. The euro remains under pressure as expectations of further Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening continue to support the US dollar. The market estimates the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October at around 69.2%.

Meanwhile, Friday’s data showed a smaller-than-expected deterioration in US consumer confidence in September. The final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 48.1 points, down from 51.7 in August, while analysts had expected a decline to 47.6. The survey also showed a sharp rise in inflation expectations in September.

Traders are now turning their attention to upcoming US macroeconomic data. This week will bring releases on the Federal Reserve's key inflation gauge and the labour market, which could affect expectations for the regulator's future monetary policy. Persistently high inflation concerns and a resilient labour market could support the US dollar and add to pressure on the EURUSD pair. The EURUSD forecast for 28 September 2026 remains bearish.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD rate is correcting after rebounding from the EMA-65, indicating continued bearish pressure. The EURUSD forecast for 28 September 2026 suggests a continued decline towards the 1.1305 target.

Analysis of the Stochastic Oscillator further supports the bearish scenario. The indicator is rebounding from a descending resistance line and has formed a bearish crossover, confirming that downward momentum could resume soon. A breakout below the lower boundary of the correction channel, followed by consolidation below 1.1360, would confirm the decline. In this case, sellers would receive a signal for a further extension of the downward move.

An alternative scenario suggests a breakout above the 1.1410 resistance level. Consolidation above this mark would indicate weakening selling pressure and a move beyond the descending channel. In this case, the EURUSD pair could continue to recover towards the nearest target at 1.1585.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H1 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance level: 1.1410
• Key support level: 1.1360

EURUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below the lower boundary of the correction channel, with a breakout below 1.1360, would intensify selling pressure and indicate a continued decline towards a potential target.

• Current price: 1.1380
• Entry level: 1.1360
• Take profit: 1.1305
• Stop loss: 1.1380
• Risk-to-reward ratio: above 1:2

The trade idea is valid until 11:00 PM on 28 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to the bearish EURUSD scenario remains a rise above the 1.1410 resistance level, which would indicate weakening selling pressure. An additional risk factor could be weaker-than-expected US macroeconomic data, which could reduce support for the dollar.

Summary

Today's EURUSD forecast indicates continued bearish momentum, with the nearest target at 1.1305. A breakout below the 1.1360 support level would provide the main confirmation of the bearish scenario.

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