EURUSD heads towards new lows, but the likelihood of a correction is increasing

The EURUSD pair continues to decline, but US inflation data could trigger a correction. The rate currently stands at 1.1187. Discover more in our analysis for 13 October 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• According to a Reuters survey, most economists expect interest rates to remain unchanged at the 29 October meeting and consider a hike to 2.75% in December possible
• In the coming days, market participants will focus on the release of US inflation data
• EURUSD forecast for 13 October 2026: 1.1070

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD currency pair maintains its downward trajectory amid a strengthening US dollar, heightened geopolitical tensions, and a reassessment of expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy. The European currency faces additional pressure from public finance issues in some eurozone countries, particularly France, and rising global energy prices.

The dollar is also bolstered by anticipation of the release of US consumer inflation data for September, scheduled for 14 October. According to preliminary forecasts, annual inflation could accelerate to 3.7%, up from 3.4% a month earlier. A larger increase in consumer prices could fuel expectations of further monetary policy tightening and trigger a new wave of dollar strengthening. At the same time, signs of slowing core inflation could reduce the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike and open the door for a corrective recovery in the EURUSD rate.

The situation in the eurozone also remains mixed. Preliminary data shows that annual inflation accelerated to 3.8% in September from 3.2% in August, substantially exceeding the ECB's 2% target. The main drivers were higher prices for oil, natural gas, and food. In September, the ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50%, but its officials have not signalled a willingness to immediately continue the tightening cycle. The EURUSD forecast for 13 October 2026 is bearish.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD pair is correcting within a broader downtrend. The EURUSD forecast for today, 13 October 2026, suggests a renewed decline, with a target at 1.1070.

On the H4 chart, a resistance level has formed at 1.1215, and a support level lies at 1.1170. On the D1 timeframe, support is located at 1.1150, with resistance at 1.1230. Before the decline resumes, the price could form a sideways channel within these levels.

An alternative scenario involves a breakout and consolidation above the 1.1230 resistance level. Such a signal would indicate easing selling pressure and increase the likelihood of a further EURUSD recovery. In this case, the pair could continue its upward trajectory towards the nearest target at 1.1305.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1215 and 1.1230
• Key support levels: 1.1170 and 1.1150

EURUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the support level, followed by consolidation below 1.1160, would indicate increased selling pressure and a continued decline towards the target at 1.1070.

• Current price: 1.1187
• Entry level: 1.1155
• Stop loss: 1.1185
• Take profit: 1.1070
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2.83

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 14 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risks to the bearish scenario include weaker-than-expected US inflation data, falling US government bond yields, easing geopolitical tensions, and growing expectations of ECB interest rate hikes. Another risk is that the EURUSD pair is technically oversold, which could trigger a sharp corrective recovery.

Summary

In the short term, the EURUSD outlook remains predominantly negative. Fundamentals favour a stronger US dollar, while the technical picture confirms that the downtrend remains intact. The key condition for this scenario to persist is the buyers' failure to push the price back above the 1.1230 resistance level.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD forecast 2026–2027: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

The EURUSD outlook for 2026 and 2027: key levels on the daily chart, three trading scenarios and the policy gap between the Fed and the ECB that drives the pair.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

Where gold could trade in 2026: key levels, three trading scenarios with entry triggers and the forecasts from J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs.