Weak ZEW data hampers EURUSD recovery

The EURUSD pair is undergoing a correction; however, as it holds above the key support level at 1.1190, supported by a bullish signal from the Stochastic Oscillator, the possibility of renewed gains remains. The rate currently stands at 1.1222. Discover more in our analysis for 21 October 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the eurozone fell to 18.5 points from a previous reading of 25.8
• A bullish crossover on the Stochastic Oscillator suggests that the EURUSD pair could recover in the near term
• EURUSD forecast for 21 October 2026: 1.1365

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is declining after rising for four consecutive trading sessions. Buyers have encountered strong resistance at 1.1245, which they have yet to overcome.

Pressure on the euro increased following weak data on the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the eurozone, which fell to 18.5 points, down from the previous reading of 25.8 and below the forecast of 24.2. Political instability in France and concerns about public finances remain additional negative factors.

At the same time, declining US Treasury yields are limiting the potential for further dollar appreciation. However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and high oil prices are supporting demand for the US currency as a safe-haven asset. Market participants are also focusing on speeches by ECB officials, which could provide further signals about the outlook for interest rates.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD pair has consolidated above the upper boundary of a descending channel, while buyers have established strong support near 1.1190. The EURUSD forecast for today, 21 October 2026, anticipates renewed growth towards 1.1365.

Further support for the bullish scenario comes from the Stochastic Oscillator, which has reached oversold territory and formed a bullish crossover. A breakout and consolidation above the local resistance level at 1.1245 would confirm further gains. In this case, buyers would receive an additional signal for an upward move towards the 1.1365 target.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: D1
• Trend: correction
• Key resistance levels: 1.1245 and 1.1365
• Key support levels: 1.1190 and 1.1145

EURUSD trading scenario for today

A breakout above the local resistance level at 1.1245 would signal renewed bullish momentum and create conditions for opening long positions in EURUSD.

Risk factors

Failure to break above the 1.1245 resistance level could lead to a continued correction and a retest of the 1.1190 support level. A breakout and consolidation below this mark would strengthen sellers' positions and increase the likelihood of further downward movement.

Summary

The EURUSD forecast for 21 October 2026 indicates potential for a recovery towards 1.1365 if buyers break above resistance at 1.1245 and gain a foothold above it. The fact that the price is holding above the 1.1190 support level, combined with a bullish crossover on the Stochastic Oscillator, underpins this scenario.

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