France's debt versus hopes of growth: what lies ahead for EURUSD in early November

France continues to weigh on the euro, but the ECB gives hope for a recovery in the near future. The EURUSD rate currently stands at 1.1181. Find out more in our analysis for 2 November 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The euro starts November under pressure from France's budget problems
• The ECB leaves the door open for an interest rate hike in December
• Christine Lagarde also confirmed the possibility of a December interest rate hike
• EURUSD forecast for 2 November 2026: 1.1240

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that the euro is starting November under pressure from France's budget problems and the dollar's continuing strength. At the same time, the prospect of further ECB monetary policy tightening suggests that the outlook for the European currency is not unequivocally negative.

France is increasing pressure on the euro. The outlook for France's credit rating has been revised to negative. This reflects the state of the country's public finances and the difficulties in reducing its budget deficit. Against the backdrop of France's debt problems, investors are becoming more cautious about European assets, which in turn is weighing on the euro. High energy costs and uncertainty about the eurozone's economic outlook remain additional sources of pressure on the European currency.

The ECB leaves open the possibility of an interest rate hike in December. At its meeting on 29 October, the central bank held the rate at 2.65% but warned of rising inflation risks due to higher energy prices. Christine Lagarde also confirmed the possibility of a December hike. This could provide support for the euro.

The fundamental analysis for 2 November 2026 takes into account that France's debt risks and the dollar's resilience are limiting the pair's recovery potential. However, the possibility of an ECB rate hike in December could support the euro. This week, the market will focus primarily on US employment data (Nonfarm Payrolls), political developments in the US, and expectations for the Fed's and ECB's December decisions.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair has formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band and could continue its upward wave as the pattern's signal plays out, with the upside target at the 1.1240 resistance level. A breakout above this mark would open the way for a developing uptrend.

However, today's EURUSD forecast also suggests an alternative scenario in which the price could form a downward wave and test the 1.1125 support level.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4
• Trend: sideways
• Key resistance levels: 1.1200 and 1.1240
• Key support levels: 1.1125 and 1.1100

EURUSD trading scenario for today

A breakout above the 1.1200 resistance level would signal the start of a new upward wave and create conditions for opening long positions.

Risk factors

The main risk factors for a rise in the EURUSD rate remain inflation trends in the US and eurozone, changes in expectations for the Federal Reserve's and ECB's December decisions, oil price volatility, and tensions in the European debt market.

Summary

France's crisis and high energy prices are weighing on the euro, but the ECB offers hope of a recovery. EURUSD technical analysis suggests a rise towards 1.1240.

Editors’ picks

EURUSD forecast 2026–2027: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

The EURUSD outlook for 2026 and 2027: key levels on the daily chart, three trading scenarios and the policy gap between the Fed and the ECB that drives the pair.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

Where gold could trade in 2026: key levels, three trading scenarios with entry triggers and the forecasts from J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs.

Open Account