US elections keep markets on edge as EURUSD loses ground again

The EURUSD pair is declining after failing to consolidate above 1.1220, as investors remain cautious ahead of the US midterm elections and key labour market data. The rate currently stands at 1.1185. Find out more in our analysis for 3 November 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Investors are reducing large positions ahead of the US midterm elections
• The market continues to price in a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, while falling oil prices are moderately limiting demand for the dollar
• Christine Lagarde also confirmed the possibility of an interest rate hike in December
• EURUSD forecast for 3 November 2026: 1.1125

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair is trading around 1.1185 on Tuesday. Market participants are adopting a cautious stance ahead of the US midterm elections on 3 November. According to market expectations as of 2 November, the probability of Democrats gaining control of the Senate is estimated at 74%.

Political uncertainty is increasing short-term volatility in the currency market, but Federal Reserve policy remains the main macroeconomic driver for the dollar. Investors are awaiting Friday's US labour market report, which could alter expectations for the future path of interest rates.

Following the pause in October, the market continues to price in the possibility of another rate hike in December. Stronger employment data would support the dollar and add to pressure on the EURUSD rate, while signs of further cooling in the labour market could temper expectations of Fed policy tightening.

A further factor has been the decline in oil prices amid signs of progress in diplomatic contacts between the US and Iran. Reduced energy-related risks are easing inflationary pressure while also lowering demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset, which is currently limiting its potential for further appreciation.

The EURUSD forecast for 3 November 2026 is bearish.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD rate remains within a broad sideways range of 1.1104–1.1269, but selling pressure is intensifying again in the short term. After recovering from the range’s lower boundary, prices failed to consolidate above the 1.1220–1.1230 area and returned to the middle of Bollinger Bands. Today's EURUSD forecast suggests a further decline, with a potential target at 1.1125.

MACD remains in positive territory, indicating that some of the recovery momentum persists. At the same time, the Stochastic Oscillator has formed a bearish crossover, with the %K line below the %D line and approaching oversold territory. A breakout below the 1.1178 support level would further confirm the bearish scenario.

The main scenario would be invalidated if the price consolidates above the 1.1205 resistance level. Such a signal would ease selling pressure and increase the likelihood of a renewed move towards 1.1232 and then the range’s upper boundary at 1.1269.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4
• Trend: sideways
• Key resistance levels: 1.1205 and 1.1232
• Key support levels: 1.1178 and 1.1125

EURUSD trading scenario for today

A breakout below a local support level, followed by consolidation below 1.1178, would create conditions for opening short positions and indicate a continued downward movement within the current range.

Risk factors

The main risk to the EURUSD bearish scenario is dollar weakness following the midterm elections or disappointing US labour market data, which could reduce expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December. A further decline in oil prices could provide additional support for the euro. Consolidation above 1.1205 would weaken the bearish scenario and increase the likelihood of a recovery towards 1.1232.

Summary

The EURUSD forecast for 3 November 2026 suggests that the local bearish momentum will persist, with a potential downside target at 1.1125 and further confirmation from a breakout below 1.1178.

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