Elections weaken the dollar as EURUSD challenges 1.1270

The EURUSD pair is hovering near local highs, supported by US dollar weakness following the US midterm elections and a sharp decline in oil prices. The rate currently stands at 1.1254. Find out more in our analysis for 5 November 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Democrats gained control of both chambers of Congress, and reduced political uncertainty put pressure on the dollar
• Falling oil prices are reducing inflation risks, but the market still expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December
• EURUSD forecast for 5 November 2026: 1.1310

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate rose to 1.1258 on Thursday. Democrats secured a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, easing some of the uncertainty surrounding the elections and supporting global risk appetite. Against this backdrop, the dollar came under pressure, while the EURUSD pair returned to its local highs.

The election results also raised expectations of political confrontation between Congress and Donald Trump's administration. The market sees this outcome as a factor that could limit abrupt changes in fiscal and foreign policy. At the same time, concerns about a renewed escalation of the conflict with Iran have eased.

Against this backdrop, oil prices fell sharply. Lower energy costs reduce inflation risks and put downward pressure on US bond yields, further weakening the dollar’s support from interest rate differentials.

However, expectations of further Federal Reserve policy tightening have not disappeared entirely. The market still considers a December rate hike highly likely, so Friday's US employment report will be the main macroeconomic focus. Strong data could bolster the dollar again and limit gains in the EURUSD rate.

The EURUSD forecast for 5 November 2026 is bullish.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD pair continues to recover after rebounding from the 1.1120 area and is once again testing the key resistance level at 1.1269. The price is hovering above the middle Bollinger Band, while a sequence of higher local lows indicates continued upward momentum. Today's EURUSD forecast suggests further gains following a breakout above 1.1269, with a potential target at 1.1310.

MACD is above the zero line, with the indicator line above the signal line, confirming that buyers remain in control. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory, with the %K line slightly below the %D line, suggesting that short-term consolidation is possible before another attempt to rise. A decisive breakout above the 1.1269 resistance level would provide further confirmation of the bullish scenario.

The main scenario would be invalidated if the price declines and consolidates below the 1.1225 support level. Such a signal would indicate weakness among buyers and increase the likelihood of a correction towards 1.1199 and then 1.1174.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1269 and 1.1310
• Key support levels: 1.1225 and 1.1199

EURUSD trading scenario for today

A breakout above the resistance level, followed by consolidation above 1.1269, would set the stage for opening long positions and confirm continued upward momentum.

Risk factors

The main risk to the EURUSD bullish scenario is a strong US labour market report, which could fuel expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December and revive demand for the dollar. A recovery in oil prices or an increase in US Treasury yields would pose additional risks. Consolidation below 1.1225 would weaken the bullish scenario and increase the likelihood of a correction towards 1.1199.

Summary

The EURUSD forecast for 5 November 2026 indicates continued bullish momentum, with a potential upside target at 1.1310 and further confirmation should the price break above 1.1269.

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