Inflation gives the dollar a boost: EURUSD heads lower again

The EURUSD rate is hovering at 1.1164 following a sharp decline driven by strong US inflation data and rising expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Find out more in our analysis for 11 November 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The US CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month in October, while core inflation increased by 0.3%, exceeding market expectations
• Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials fuelled expectations of a December rate hike and supported the dollar
• EURUSD forecast for 11 November 2026: 1.1104

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair is consolidating near 1.1167 after a sharp decline in the previous session. The main pressure on the pair came from higher-than-expected US inflation data, which strengthened expectations of further Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening.

Headline CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month in October, above expectations of 0.3%. The core CPI also increased by 0.3%, exceeding the forecast of 0.2%. The figures showed that inflationary pressure remains persistent despite the interest rate hikes already implemented.

Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials provided additional support for the dollar. Christopher Waller suggested that a 50-basis-point rate hike in December could be possible if elevated core inflation persists. Other Fed officials also stressed the need to maintain restrictive monetary policy and accelerate the tightening cycle if necessary.

However, hopes of a diplomatic resolution to the conflict between the US and Iran are somewhat limiting the dollar's potential for further strengthening. Easing geopolitical tensions could reduce safe-haven demand for the US currency and alleviate energy-related inflation risks.

Today, market participants will also focus on Germany's final inflation figures and speeches by ECB officials. More hawkish signals from the European regulator could provide some short-term support for the euro, although the divergence between Federal Reserve and ECB policy expectations continues to favour the dollar.

The EURUSD forecast for 11 November 2026 is bearish.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD pair declined sharply after another failure to consolidate above the 1.1235–1.1269 area. The price broke below the middle Bollinger Band and returned to the lower part of the trading range. Today's EURUSD forecast suggests a further decline, with a potential target at 1.1104.

MACD is below the zero line, with the indicator line below the signal line, confirming sellers' advantage. The Stochastic Oscillator has fallen towards oversold territory, although the %K line at 20.66 remains above the %D line at 16.85. This leaves room for a local technical rebound before a possible resumption of the decline.

A breakout below the 1.1138 support level would further confirm the bearish scenario. The main scenario would be invalidated if the price returns above the 1.1197 resistance level. In this case, the recovery could continue towards 1.1236 and then the key 1.1269 area.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1197 and 1.1236
• Key support levels: 1.1138 and 1.1104

EURUSD trading scenario for today

A breakout below local support followed by consolidation below 1.1138 would confirm continued bearish momentum and create conditions for opening short positions.

Risk factors

The main risk to the EURUSD bearish scenario would be more hawkish ECB rhetoric or strong German inflation data, which could fuel expectations of further monetary policy tightening in the eurozone. A further decline in oil prices and an easing of geopolitical risks could also provide additional support for the euro. Consolidation above 1.1197 would weaken the bearish scenario and increase the likelihood of a recovery towards 1.1236.

Summary

The EURUSD forecast for 11 November 2026 points to continued bearish momentum, with a potential downside target at 1.1104 and further confirmation should the price break below 1.1138.

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