EURUSD weekly forecast: buying remains the priority

The EURUSD pair enters the week of 24–28 August near 1.1691 after the dollar fell almost 1% over the previous week. Pressure on the US currency increased following the US Treasury’s decision to expand its long-term bond buyback program. The key event of the week will be a batch of US data releases: core PCE, the second estimate of Q2 GDP, durable goods orders, and personal income and spending. On Friday, the market will also assess the preliminary annual revision to Nonfarm Payrolls.

On the daily chart, the EURUSD pair retains a pronounced bullish structure and is trading near the upper Bollinger Band. The nearest resistance level is located at 1.1719; a breakout above it would open the way towards 1.1778 and then 1.1835. The support level lies at 1.1662, with next ones at 1.1604 and 1.1547. MACD remains in positive territory, while the Stochastic Oscillator above 80 indicates the risk of a local correction. As long as the pair remains above 1.1662, the baseline scenario remains moderately positive.

EURUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

• Market focus: the EURUSD pair enters the week of 24–28 August near 1.1691 following a nearly 1% decline in the dollar over the previous week. Pressure on the US currency increased after the US Treasury decided to expand its long-term bond buyback program. Rising US government debt and high oil prices amid new sanctions against Iran remain in focus
• Current trend: on the daily chart, the EURUSD rate retains a pronounced bullish structure, trading near 1.1692, close to the upper Bollinger Band. The price remains firmly above the indicator’s middle line, MACD stays in positive territory and is strengthening, while the Stochastic Oscillator above 80 indicates overbought conditions and the risk of a local correction. The nearest resistance level is located at 1.1719, followed by 1.1778 and 1.1835. Support levels lie at 1.1662, 1.1604, and 1.1547
• Weekly outlook: a weak core PCE reading, a downward GDP revision, and deteriorating employment data could increase pressure on the dollar and support a breakout above 1.1719, with scope for a move towards 1.1778 and 1.1835. Higher inflation and strong consumer data could restore demand for the dollar and trigger a EURUSD correction below 1.1662 towards 1.1604. The baseline scenario remains moderately positive: buy after a consolidation above 1.1719, targeting 1.1778 with a stop loss at 1.1688. The risk-to-reward ratio is approximately 1:1.8, and the idea remains valid until 28 August 2026

EURUSD fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair enters the week near 1.1691, with the US dollar down nearly 1% over the previous week.

Pressure on the US currency increased after the US Treasury decided to expand its long-term bond buyback program. US Treasury yields initially fell sharply before partially recovering amid doubts that the measure could keep borrowing costs contained for long.

Rising US government debt and high oil prices amid new sanctions against Iran remain in the spotlight, with both factors supporting inflation risks and increasing dollar volatility.

The key event of the week will be a batch of US data releases on Wednesday. The market expects the July core PCE price index to rise by 0.2% month-on-month, up from 0.1%. At the same time, the second estimate of US Q2 GDP will be released, with growth expected at 1.5% versus the initial 2.1%, alongside durable goods orders and personal income and spending data. On Friday, attention will turn to the preliminary annual revision to Nonfarm Payrolls after the previous adjustment of −911 thousand jobs.

High inflation and robust consumer data could restore support for the dollar, while weak PCE, a downward GDP revision, and a worsening employment picture could intensify the decline.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, the EURUSD rate maintains a pronounced bullish structure. After reversing from the July lows, the pair accelerated its advance and is now trading near 1.1692, close to the upper Bollinger Band. The price remains firmly above the indicator’s middle line, so buyers continue to hold the upper hand.

The nearest resistance level is located at 1.1719. A breakout above this mark would confirm continued bullish momentum and open the way towards 1.1778 and then 1.1835. The first support level stands at 1.1662, followed by 1.1604 and 1.1547. MACD remains in positive territory and is strengthening, while the Stochastic Oscillator above 80 warns of the risk of a local correction.

The baseline scenario suggests buying after a consolidation above 1.1719. The entry point is a buy stop at 1.1720, with a take profit at 1.1778 and a stop loss at 1.1688. The potential profit is around 58 pips with a risk of 32 pips, resulting in a risk-to-reward ratio of approximately 1:1.8.

The trading idea remains valid until 28 August 2026, provided the EURUSD pair does not consolidate below 1.1662.

EURUSD trading scenarios

The EURUSD pair enters the week of 24–28 August near 1.1691 after the dollar sank almost 1% over the previous week. Pressure on the US currency built up after the US Treasury decided to expand its long-term bond buyback program. Additional factors include rising US government debt and high oil prices amid new sanctions against Iran.

From a technical perspective, the EURUSD rate retains a pronounced bullish structure and is trading near the upper Bollinger Band. MACD remains in positive territory and confirms the buyers’ advantage, although the Stochastic Oscillator above 80 indicates overbought conditions and the risk of a local correction. The nearest resistance level is located at 1.1719, with support at 1.1662 and 1.1604.

• Buy scenario

A consolidation above 1.1719 would confirm continued bullish momentum and open the way towards 1.1778. Weak core PCE data, a downward revision of GDP, and signs of further labour market cooling could provide additional support for the EURUSD pair.

Entry point: Buy stop 1.1720

Take profit: 1.1778

Stop loss: 1.1688

Risk/reward: approximately 1:1.8

• Sell scenario

A return below 1.1662 would signal a deeper correction and bring 1.1604 back into focus. Stronger inflation and consumer activity data could support the dollar and add to pressure on the pair.

Entry point: Sell stop 1.1660

Take profit: 1.1604

Stop loss: 1.1692

Risk/reward: approximately 1:1.8

Conclusion: buyers retain the advantage, although overbought conditions increase the likelihood of a local pullback.

Summary

The EURUSD pair enters the week of 24–28 August near 1.1691 after the dollar fell almost 1% over the previous week. Pressure on the US currency increased after the US Treasury decided to expand its long-term bond buyback program. The key event of the week will be a batch of US data releases, including core PCE, the second estimate of Q2 GDP, durable goods orders, and personal income and spending. On Friday, the market will also assess the preliminary annual revision to Nonfarm Payrolls.

On the daily chart, the EURUSD pair maintains a pronounced bullish structure and is trading near the upper Bollinger Band. The nearest resistance level is located at 1.1719, with an upside breakout likely to open the way towards 1.1778 and then 1.1835. The support level is located at 1.1662, followed by 1.1604 and 1.1547. MACD remains in positive territory, while the Stochastic Oscillator above 80 indicates the risk of a local correction. As long as the pair holds above 1.1662, the baseline scenario remains moderately positive.

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