EURUSD weekly forecast: market sentiment shifts back towards the US dollar
The EURUSD pair is starting the new week near 1.1200, forming a corrective wave after a sharp decline.
This week, the market is awaiting meetings of two regulators, the ECB and the Federal Reserve. The key question is which of them will leave interest rates unchanged and which might tighten monetary policy.
- Price at the time of writing
- 1.1200
- Bias for the week
- BearishH4
- Weekly range
- 1.1240 and 1.1150
- Trigger level
- 1.1240 and 1.1150
- Forecast invalid above
- 1.1350
- Main event
- Fed and ECB meetings
Updated 23 October 2026, 16:46 (UTC+3)
What moves EURUSD next week
- Market focus: the main drivers for the EURUSD pair this week will be the Fed and ECB meetings. The market expects the regulators not to tighten monetary policy and to leave interest rates unchanged: 4.0% for the Fed and 2.62% for the ECB. What matters particularly for the foreign exchange market is whether expectations of another rate hike will persist. If investors continue to price in a higher terminal rate, yields and the dollar may remain elevated. A weakening of these expectations would give the EURUSD pair an opportunity to recover after a sharp weekly fall
- Current trend: on the daily chart, the EURUSD pair has fallen sharply from the 1.1200 area and is trading around the middle Bollinger Band, which acts as resistance. MACD is in negative territory and continues to move towards the zero line. The Stochastic Oscillator is near the 50 level. This increases the likelihood of a correction but does not invalidate the established downtrend
- Weekly outlook: the baseline scenario suggests continued pressure on the EURUSD rate as long as the pair remains above the 1.1200–1.1150 area. Early in the week, the market may attempt to stabilise near the support level, but a breakout below it would signal a further decline. A sustained move below 1.1150 would open the way towards 1.1000
Week calendar
| Day | Event | Why it matters for EURUSD |
|---|---|---|
| 28–29 October | ECB | An ECB meeting at which a decision on changing the interest rate will be made. The probability of leaving the rate unchanged currently stands at more than 90%. |
| 27–28 October | FOMC | An FOMC meeting at which a decision on changing the interest rate will be made. The probability of keeping the rate unchanged is currently more than 80%. |
EURUSD technical analysis
On the daily chart, the EURUSD pair continues its correction in a sideways trend and is testing the middle Bollinger Band, which acts as a resistance level.
The nearest support is located at 1.1150. A breakout below this mark would signal continued downward momentum, with the next downside target around 1.1000. A resistance level lies at 1.1500, followed by 1.1805 and 1.1915.
MACD is below the zero line and gradually declining. The signal line has moved out of the histogram, signalling either a continued correction or the formation of an upward wave. The Stochastic Oscillator has approached the 50 level after a crossover near 80, suggesting that the correction may be coming to an end.
EURUSD trading scenario for next week
A breakout and consolidation below the 1.1150 support level would signal a continuation of the downtrend. Therefore, selling would become relevant only after prices consolidate below the support level.
At the same time, a rise and consolidation above 1.1350 would extend the correction and invalidate the sell scenarios.
EURUSD trading scenario
What would change the forecast
- Monetary policy tightening by the ECB and an interest rate hike would strengthen the euro, pushing the EURUSD rate higher
- A return above 1.1350 would form an upward wave and invalidate the bearish scenario
- New geopolitical conflicts could weaken the USD and strengthen the euro
EURUSD forecast next week: questions and answers
Will the euro go up or down next week?
The outlook for 26–30 October 2026 is bearish while EURUSD remains around 1.1200 and continues to move sideways. A confirmed breakout below 1.1150 would open the way towards 1.1000. The key level to watch this week remains 1.1150.
What are the key EURUSD levels for 26–30 October 2026?
The support level is located at 1.1150, followed by 1.1000, with resistance levels at 1.1350 and 1.1500. A breakout above resistance at 1.1350 would invalidate the bearish forecast.
What moves the euro next week?
The FOMC meeting on 27–28 October and the ECB meeting on 28–29 October. The market currently estimates the probability of interest rates remaining unchanged at more than 80%. Rising US bond yields and high oil prices amid the conflict with Iran are increasing pressure on the eurozone.
Summary
The EURUSD pair is starting the new week near a key technical support level after a sharp strengthening of the dollar and the Fed's first interest rate hike in three years. While oversold conditions create an opportunity for a correction, the downtrend remains intact.
The EURUSD forecast for 26–30 October 2026 suggests further losses following a breakout below 1.1150, with the nearest target around 1.1000.
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