EURUSD weekly forecast: US inflation will test the euro's upward momentum
The EURUSD pair will start the new week around 1.1200 after stabilising above its October lows. Lower Treasury yields and hawkish ECB rhetoric are easing pressure on the pair, but the dollar continues to benefit from expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening.
The main test in the coming week will be a new set of US inflation data.
- Price at the time of writing
- 1.1193
- Bias for the week
- Moderately bullish, D1
- Weekly range
- 1.1100–1.1370
- Trigger level
- 1.1269
- Forecast invalidation level
- 1.1104
- Main event
- US CPI
Updated 6 November 2026, 10:18 (UTC+3)
What moves EURUSD next week
- Market focus: the key event of the week will be October inflation data from the US. The market still considers another Federal Reserve rate hike later this year possible, so the CPI report should show how persistent price pressures remain. Weaker-than-expected data could push Treasury yields lower and support the EURUSD rate, while another upside inflation surprise would strengthen the dollar
- Current trend: the EURUSD pair is consolidating after a sharp decline in September and October and remains above the 1.1104 support level. MACD is still below zero but is recovering from its recent lows. The Stochastic Oscillator has risen towards the middle of its range, although the initial momentum has eased somewhat. This suggests that the pair is entering a phase of seeking a new direction
- Weekly outlook: the baseline scenario envisages further recovery potential as long as the price remains above 1.1104. Consolidation above 1.1269 would signal a breakout from the current consolidation and open the way towards 1.1370. A breakout below 1.1104 would shift the advantage back to the sellers
Week calendar
| Day | Event | Why it matters for EURUSD |
|---|---|---|
| 10 November | US October CPI | The week's main macroeconomic benchmark. Higher inflation would reinforce expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike and support the dollar. Slowing price pressures could help EURUSD recover. |
| 13 November | US October PPI | This will show changes in producer-level prices and help assess the risk of renewed inflationary pressure in the coming months. A strong reading could shift expectations for Federal Reserve policy in favour of the dollar. |
EURUSD technical analysis
On the daily chart, the EURUSD pair remains in a broader downtrend following the August high, although the latest price movement has entered a consolidation phase. The 1.11039 support level has held back sellers twice, after which the pair returned to the 1.1200 area.
The key resistance level is located at 1.12688. A breakout above it would provide the first technical confirmation of a more substantial correction, with targets at 1.1314 and 1.1370. Higher up lie the 1.1426 and 1.1482 levels. Should the price fall, the main support level remains at 1.11039.
The price is hovering below the middle Bollinger Band but is no longer pressed against the lower band. MACD remains in negative territory; however, the main line is above the signal line, indicating weakening bearish momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator has risen above 50, although it is now showing a slight loss of momentum.
The technical picture is becoming more balanced: sellers no longer control the market as firmly as they did in October, but a clear recovery signal will emerge only above 1.1269.
EURUSD trading scenario for next week
The pair continues to consolidate between the 1.1104 support level and the 1.1269 resistance level, so entering a trade within the range does not provide sufficient confirmation of direction.
Buying becomes relevant once prices consolidate above 1.1269. A return below 1.1104 would invalidate the recovery scenario and indicate a resumption of the medium-term decline.
EURUSD trading scenario
What would change the forecast
- A faster-than-expected rise in US inflation could push Treasury yields higher again and strengthen the dollar, limiting the EURUSD recovery
- A breakout below 1.1104 would confirm a downside exit from the current consolidation and invalidate the moderately positive scenario
- Conversely, stronger expectations of tighter ECB policy could support the euro and accelerate a move above 1.1269
EURUSD forecast next week: questions and answers
Will the euro rise or fall next week?
The forecast for 9–13 November envisages a moderately positive scenario provided the 1.1269 level is broken. As long as the EURUSD pair remains below this mark, it continues to move sideways within a broader downtrend.
What are the key EURUSD levels for 9–13 November 2026?
The main support level is located at 1.1104. The nearest resistance and key trigger is 1.1269. A breakout above it would bring 1.1314 and 1.1370 into focus as the next targets.
What will move the euro next week?
The main drivers will be US CPI and PPI data, as these could change expectations for the next Federal Reserve rate hike. Hawkish rhetoric from ECB officials also continues to provide additional support for the euro.
Summary
The EURUSD pair enters the new week after stabilising above its October lows, while weakening bearish momentum is creating conditions for a further recovery.
The EURUSD forecast for 9–13 November suggests a rise if the price consolidates above 1.1269, with the nearest target at 1.1370. A breakout below 1.1104 would invalidate this scenario.
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