USDJPY is set for a crucial test of the 160.45 resistance level

The USDJPY rate has reached the key resistance level amid strong US labour market data, currently standing at 160.23. Discover more in our analysis for 8 June 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• The US economy created 172 thousand new jobs in May, significantly exceeding the market forecast of 85 thousand
• Robust employment data fuelled expectations of further Fed policy tightening
• The USDJPY pair approaching the 160.45 level increases the likelihood of profit-taking and a corrective decline
• USDJPY forecast for 8 June 2026: 159.75

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY pair has been steadily rising for the seventh consecutive trading session. Quotes have moved very close to the crucial resistance level of 160.45, maintaining upward momentum amid a stronger US currency.

Robust labour market data provided the main support for the US dollar. According to Friday’s report, the US economy added 172 thousand new jobs in May, significantly exceeding the market forecast of 85 thousand. Labour market resilience strengthened expectations of further Fed monetary policy tightening. Following the data release, the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, according to market estimates, rose to almost 70%.

At the same time, the Japanese economy is also showing signs of improvement. Japan’s services sector sentiment index rose to 43.6 in May 2026 from 40.8 a month earlier. The yen is further supported by revised GDP data, which shows Japan’s economy grew by 0.5% in Q1 2026 following a 0.2% increase the previous quarter.

Today’s USDJPY forecast indicates continued upward momentum, but the proximity of the key resistance level at 160.45 and the risks of intervention by the Japanese authorities may trigger a correction in the pair.

Technical outlook

The USDJPY pair has reached the upper boundary of an ascending channel. Buyers continue to hold the price above the EMA-65, signalling that the bulls remain in control and supporting the medium-term uptrend. However, the proximity of the key resistance level at 160.45 and the formation of a rebound from the channel’s upper boundary indicate a high probability of a corrective decline. Today’s USDJPY forecast suggests a fall towards the lower boundary of the ascending channel at 159.75.

The technical picture supports this scenario. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and has formed a bearish crossover, signalling waning upward momentum and increasing the risks of a correction. A confident breakout below the nearest support level, with the price consolidating below 160.05, would further confirm the decline.

An alternative scenario suggests renewed growth if the price confidently breaks above the upper boundary of the ascending channel and consolidates above 160.45. This signal would confirm stronger bullish momentum and open the way for further growth towards 161.25.

USDJPY overview

• Asset: USDJPY
• Timeframe: M30 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 160.40 and 160.85
• Key support levels: 160.05 and 159.70

USDJPY trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A third rebound from the upper boundary of the bullish channel would create conditions for opening short positions, while a breakout below the 160.05 support level would add to pressure on the pair.

• Take Profit: 159.75
• Stop Loss: 160.45

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout above the 160.45 resistance level, with consolidation above the upper boundary of the bullish channel, would trigger an acceleration of bullish momentum in the pair.

• Take Profit: 158.80
• Stop Loss: 159.60

Risk factors

The risk to the downside scenario remains continued strong demand for the US dollar amid robust macroeconomic data and rising expectations of further Fed policy tightening. A confident breakout of the 160.45 level and consolidation above resistance would cancel the correction signal and open the door for USDJPY growth towards 161.25.

Summary

Today’s USDJPY forecast suggests a high probability of a downward correction towards 159.75. However, a breakout above the 160.45 resistance level would invalidate this scenario and signal a continuation of the upward move.

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