USDJPY slows its rise near the key resistance level of 161.70

The USDJPY pair maintains its upward momentum thanks to the strong US dollar, with the rate currently at 161.68. Discover more in our analysis for 24 June 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• The strengthening US dollar is putting pressure on the Japanese yen
• Verbal interventions by the Japanese authorities are having a limited impact on the currency market
• Investors doubt Tokyo’s willingness to carry out new large-scale currency interventions
• USDJPY forecast for 24 June 2026: 162.20

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is rising for the third consecutive trading session, although the upward move has slowed near the strong resistance level at 161.70, where buyer activity has weakened.

The Japanese yen remains under pressure amid a strengthening US dollar and the persistent significant interest rate gap between the US and Japan. Additional support for the US currency is coming from market expectations, which, following the latest Federal Reserve meeting, still suggest at least one interest rate hike before the end of the year. Hawkish rhetoric from US policymakers continues to support demand for the US dollar.

Japanese authorities' support for the yen remains limited. Verbal interventions by Tokyo officials have so far had no noticeable effect on the market. In addition, investors are increasingly doubting the authorities’ willingness to carry out further large-scale currency interventions following the record-breaking operation that required significant spending of the country’s international reserves.

Technical outlook

The USDJPY rate continues to move within a developing Triangle pattern. Buyers are confidently holding quotes above the EMA-65, indicating continued steady upward momentum. Today’s USDJPY forecast expects further growth, with a target at 162.20.

The technical picture remains favourable for further strengthening in the pair. The Stochastic Oscillator is turning upwards from the rising support line, signalling continued potential for building long positions. An additional signal in favour of continued growth will come from a breakout above the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern with subsequent price consolidation above 161.75. In this case, buyers will be able to accelerate the upward move and test new local highs.

An alternative scenario suggests stronger selling pressure. A breakout below the lower boundary of the ascending channel, with the price consolidating below 161.35, would signal a correction. Such a scenario will cancel the current bullish forecast and increase the probability of a decline towards the key support area at 160.25.

USDJPY overview

• Asset: USDJPY
• Timeframe: M15 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 161.75 and 161.95
• Key support levels: 161.50 and 161.05

USDJPY trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern and consolidation above 161.75 would strengthen bullish pressure and indicate the start of the pattern’s completion with a target at 162.20.

• Take Profit: 162.20
• Stop Loss: 161.25

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the lower boundary of the bullish channel, with quotes consolidating below 161.25, would indicate the end of the bullish momentum and a strong downward correction.

• Take Profit: 160.75
• Stop Loss: 161.65

Risk factors

The main risks to the USDJPY upside scenario remain the strong resistance level at 161.70, where buyer activity is weakening. An additional negative factor is possible stronger selling pressure if sentiment towards the US dollar worsens or if Japanese authorities step up verbal interventions, which could trigger a breakout of the 161.35 support level and lead to a correction.

Summary

Technical analysis of USDJPY indicates continued upside potential, as the pair is holding above the EMA-65. Consolidation above the 161.75 resistance level would confirm buyer readiness for further growth towards 162.20.

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