USDJPY is consolidating within a Triangle pattern

The USDJPY pair resumed growth following a correction, but buyers continue to face strong resistance. The rate currently stands at 161.80. Discover more in our analysis for 29 June 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• The US dollar is strengthening amid the persistent interest rate gap between the US and Japan
• The yen remains under pressure despite warnings from Japan’s Ministry of Finance about possible interventions
• USDJPY forecast for 29 June 2026: 162.35

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate resumed growth following a correction that lasted for two consecutive trading sessions. However, buyers are still unable to break confidently above the key resistance level at 161.85.

The Japanese yen received support from hawkish statements by BoJ officials, which increased expectations of further interest rate hikes before the end of the year. However, the national currency remains under pressure despite repeated warnings from Japan’s Ministry of Finance about possible interventions and the large-scale currency interventions carried out almost two months ago.

The main factor behind the yen’s weakness remains the strengthening US dollar and the interest rate differential between the two countries. Investors continue to assess the prospects of the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish monetary policy stance, which supports demand for the US currency.

The situation in the Middle East is attracting particular attention from market participants. Oil prices rose amid renewed tensions between the US and Iran in the area of the Strait of Hormuz. However, the sides agreed to refrain from further escalation ahead of another round of peace talks.

Technical outlook

The USDJPY rate is correcting within a developing Triangle pattern. At the same time, buyers continue to hold the price above the EMA-65, indicating continued bullish pressure. Today’s USDJPY forecast suggests a renewed upward move, with a target at 162.35.

The technical picture remains favourable for further growth. The Stochastic Oscillator rebounded from the support line and formed a bullish crossover, signalling a possible strengthening of the upward momentum. A breakout above the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern, with the price consolidating above 161.95, would further confirm the upside scenario.

An alternative scenario suggests a downward correction if the price breaks the Triangle pattern’s lower boundary and consolidates below 161.35. Such a signal would cancel the bullish scenario and open the way for a deeper decline.

USDJPY overview

• Asset: USDJPY
• Timeframe: H1 (Intraday / short-term)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 161.95 and 162.35
• Key support levels: 161.55 and 161.25

USDJPY trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the Triangle pattern's upper boundary and consolidation above 161.95 would indicate the start of the pattern’s implementation.

• Take Profit: 162.35
• Stop Loss: 161.55

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the lower boundary of the bullish channel, with the price consolidating below 161.45, would indicate the resumption of the downward move and increased selling pressure.

• Take Profit: 160.85
• Stop Loss: 161.95

Risk factors

The key risk to the USDJPY growth scenario remains a possible strengthening of intervention signals from Japan’s Ministry of Finance, which could sharply limit the upward momentum. Additional pressure on the bullish scenario may come from a breakout below the lower boundary of the Triangle pattern.

Summary

Despite expectations of further BoJ policy tightening, the USDJPY pair retains an upward bias due to the continuing interest rate gap between the US and Japan. Technical analysis of USDJPY suggests a bullish scenario, with a target at 162.35.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD forecast 2026–2027: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

The ECB holds rates at 2.15% while the Fed stays at 3.75% — and that divergence is the central driver of EURUSD in 2026. The pair is range-bound between 1.1400 and 1.1915, with Deutsche Bank targeting 1.2500 and Morgan Stanley calling for 1.3000 by year-end. We analyse the technicals, break down the macro factors, and outline three trading scenarios with specific entry levels.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026: predictions based on fundamental and technical analysis

Where is gold headed after pulling back from the all-time high of 5,597 USD? XAUUSD is consolidating near 4,518 USD between key levels 4,220 USD and 4,855 USD, with major banks targeting 5,243–6,200 USD by year-end. Read our comprehensive gold forecast: technical analysis across three timeframes, trading scenarios with specific entry levels, Fed policy and central bank demand outlook, and institutional predictions for 2026 and beyond.