USDJPY continues to rise amid strong US data

USDJPY continues to rise amid expectations of further Federal Reserve monetary-policy tightening. The current price is 158.27. Find out more in our analysis for 24 September 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• The US Manufacturing PMI rose to 57.0, significantly exceeding the 53.6 forecast
• The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike rose to 68.6%, from 53.1% a day earlier
• USDJPY forecast for 24 September 2026: 155.50

Fundamental analysis

USDJPY is strengthening for the fifth consecutive trading session. Buyers managed to consolidate above the 157.95 resistance level, opening the way towards the next level at 159.55. The pair continues to rise amid sustained demand for the US dollar and weakness in the Japanese yen.

The dollar received additional support from preliminary US manufacturing business activity data. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 57.0 in September from 53.9 a month earlier, significantly exceeding the forecast of 53.6. The strong result points to sustained growth in the US manufacturing sector and supports expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive monetary-policy stance.

The market also continues to price in the prospect of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate increase at the next Federal Reserve meeting rose to 68.6% from 53.1% a day earlier. Following the rate increase at the September meeting, market attention has shifted to the future path of monetary policy.

The main risk to further USDJPY gains is the pair's approach to the 160 level. Japanese authorities have already signalled heightened attention to yen movements, while reports of a BoJ rate check have increased concerns about possible currency intervention.

Technical outlook

USDJPY continues to move within a bullish channel, although the risk of a Wedge reversal pattern forming remains. Today's USDJPY forecast suggests a resumption of the downward move towards the 155.50 target.

Indicator analysis points to continued downside potential for USDJPY. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought zone and is testing a descending resistance line, which may indicate the formation of a new bearish impulse. An additional signal in favour of a decline would be a clear breakout below the 157.75 support level, confirming that the price has moved outside the Wedge pattern.

At the same time, the risk of further upside remains. A breakout above the upper boundary of the channel and consolidation above 159.05 would signal further gains in USDJPY and invalidate the current bearish scenario.

USDJPY overview

• Asset: USDJPY
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 159.05 and 160.25
• Key support levels: 157.75 and 156.70

USDJPY trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Sell Stop)

A decline in USDJPY below the lower boundary of the Wedge reversal pattern, followed by consolidation below 157.75, would indicate that the pattern is beginning to play out, with a target at 155.50.

• Current price: 158.27
• Entry level: 157.75
• Take Profit: 155.50
• Stop Loss: 158.30
• Risk-to-reward ratio: above 1:4

The trade idea is valid until 08:00 AM on 25 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

Risks to the bearish USDJPY scenario remain amid strong US business activity data and rising expectations of further Federal Reserve monetary-policy tightening. An additional factor increasing bullish pressure would be a continuation of the USDJPY rise above 159.05, which could invalidate the bearish scenario.

Summary

USDJPY technical analysis indicates that the potential for a corrective decline remains as the Wedge reversal pattern begins to play out. A breakout below the 157.75 support level would confirm the bearish scenario with a target at 155.50.

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