USDJPY rises again: the Fed supports the dollar, but Japan prepares a firm response

After attempts to strengthen, the yen continues to lose ground, while the probability of intervention is gradually increasing. The price currently stands at 157.35. Discover more in our analysis for 29 September 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• The market situation for USDJPY is once again shaping up against the yen
• The risk of currency intervention is increasing by the day
• The market is awaiting US PCE and employment data
• USDJPY forecast for 29 September 2026: 158.00

Fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis for 29 September 2026 shows that the market situation for the USDJPY pair is once again shifting against the yen. Following a correction, the USDJPY rate is forming an upward wave and testing the 157.35 level.

The market estimates the probability of another rate hike in October at more than 70%. High rate expectations are supporting the dollar and maintaining a wide interest rate differential between the US and Japan.

Japan's top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura said markets should take warnings from Tokyo and Washington about further yen weakness seriously. The authorities have previously taken joint action to stabilise the currency market.

Japan's services inflation accelerated in August amid rising oil prices, increasing pressure on the Bank of Japan to continue tightening monetary policy.

Today's USDJPY forecast is based on market anticipation of US PCE and employment data. Strong figures could fuel expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, while weak data could shift the current balance of expectations.

High oil prices and the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike are supporting the US currency. At the same time, the risk of sharp intervention by Japan has increased significantly: Tokyo and Washington have reiterated their readiness to act against excessive yen weakness, while accelerating inflation in Japan provides additional grounds for further BoJ tightening.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the USDJPY rate has formed a Harami reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band and is trading around 157.35. As the price remains within an ascending channel, it could continue its upward trajectory as the pattern signal plays out, with the first upside target at 158.00.

At the same time, the USDJPY forecast also considers another market scenario. The pair could form a corrective wave and move towards 156.70 before resuming the uptrend.

USDJPY overview

• Asset: USDJPY
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 158.00 and 159.00
• Key support levels: 156.70 and 155.70

USDJPY trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 158.00 resistance level would confirm a continued upward wave and create conditions for opening long positions.

• Current price: 157.35
• Entry level: 158.00
• Take profit: 159.00
• Stop loss: 157.30
• Risk-to-reward ratio: above 1:3

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 30 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to the bullish USDJPY scenario remains the increased likelihood of currency intervention by the Japanese government and weak US employment data.

Summary

The yen continues to lose ground ahead of US data releases, with the risk of intervention gradually increasing. USDJPY technical analysis suggests a rise towards the 158.00 level.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD forecast 2026–2027: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

The EURUSD outlook for 2026 and 2027: key levels on the daily chart, three trading scenarios and the policy gap between the Fed and the ECB that drives the pair.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

Where gold could trade in 2026: key levels, three trading scenarios with entry triggers and the forecasts from J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs.