USDJPY: the pair continues to correct after a surge

The USDJPY rate maintains its downward trajectory ahead of US inflation data, with a correction target at the 156.60 support level. Find out more in our analysis for 13 January 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• US consumer inflation: previously at 3.0%
• USDJPY forecast for 13 January 2025: 158.75 and 156.60

Fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis for 13 January 2025 considers that the USDJPY pair is trading near 158.00, demonstrating minimal fluctuations. The market is awaiting the release of US inflation data, which may impact the pair’s movements.

Earlier on 21 November 2024, the USDJPY pair tumbled to 154.00 even though the US dollar had strengthened. This was due to expectations that President-elect Donald Trump’s policy would boost inflation and the economy in the US, as well as statements by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who refrained from promising to raise the interest rate at a December meeting.

Analysts note that the USDJPY is heavily impacted by expectations about the monetary policies of the US and Japan’s central banks and economic data from these countries.

Investors continue to monitor macroeconomic indicators and regulators’ comments to assess further prospects for the USDJPY rate.

The USDJPY forecast for today, 13 January 2025, appears somewhat optimistic for the yen, which may maintain its near-term prospects for strengthening.

USDJPY technical analysis

Having tested the lower Bollinger band, the USDJPY price has formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern on the H4 chart. At this stage, it continues to correct following the pattern signal. Since the quotes are moving within an ascending channel, the trend will likely continue after a pullback.

The target for a correction is the 156.60 support level. A rebound from this level may open the potential for a more substantial upward wave.

However, an alternative scenario is possible, where the price rises to 158.75 without retreating to the support level and continues its upward momentum, reaching new highs.

Summary

Together with the USDJPY technical analysis, the expectation of the US inflation indicator suggests a further correction towards 156.60.