Brent declines further amid expectations of oversupply

Crude production recovery at an Iraqi oil field eliminated the short-term support for Brent prices, which are currently standing at 62.14 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 9 December 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• Brent crude is falling for the second consecutive session amid expectations of oversupply in 2026
• Iraq has restored production at an oil field, adding to pressure on Brent prices
• Brent forecast for 9 December 2025: 60.20

Fundamental analysis

Brent quotes are declining for the second consecutive session as expectations of oversupply continue to outweigh geopolitical risks. Earlier this week, the market received brief support following reports of a full shutdown at Iraq’s West Qurna-2 oil field, which produces about 460 thousand barrels per day, nearly 0.5% of global output. However, Iraq later restored operations at the field, once again intensifying downward pressure on prices.

Investors are now awaiting the upcoming EIA and OPEC+ reports due later this week, which should clarify the outlook for the global supply-demand balance. Additional market focus is on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision scheduled for Wednesday. A potential 25-basis-point rate cut could offer short-term support to Brent at the bottom of the range near 60.00 USD.

Overall, Brent maintains its downward momentum, as the market already expects oil production in 2026 to exceed demand, creating sustained pressure on prices.

Brent technical analysis

Brent prices continue to decline within a long-term downward channel. Sellers retain control, with prices consolidating below the EMA-65, confirming persistent bearish pressure. The Brent price forecast suggests further downside towards 60.20 USD.

A supporting signal for continued decline comes from the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal lines have turned downwards and broken below the support level, indicating steady selling activity and sustained bearish momentum.

A consolidation below the key support level of 61.95 USD would confirm the full development of a bearish impulse and signal the completion of a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern.

Summary

The downtrend in Brent persists amid firm expectations of future oversupply, particularly in the longer term. The Brent forecast indicates a high probability of a further price decline towards 60.20 USD.

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