Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2025 and beyond: expert insights, price predictions, and analysis

Disclaimer: the information in this article is based on the analysis of reputable financial resources and analytical data from RoboForex specialists. It reflects the conclusions of thorough research, but it should be taken into account that economic changes may significantly affect market conditions, which may lead to changes in Gold forecasts. We recommend conducting your own research and consulting with professionals before making important financial decisions.

Gold remains one of the most reliable tools for hedging risks during global crises. Its popularity confirms the enduring appeal of this asset, which is projected to persist in the long term.

After impressive growth in 2024 and at the beginning of 2025, the gold market entered a consolidation phase in April 2025, trading within the range of 3,200-3,400 USD per ounce. Over the past year, the XAUUSD rate increased by 27%, reaching a peak of 2,790 USD per ounce on 31 October 2024. In 2025, prices tested the 3,499 level and formed a correction. Despite the current stabilisation, analysts remain confident in gold's potential in 2025, predicting its movement towards the key level of 3,500 USD.

The escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East, and political instability in Europe continue to heighten economic uncertainty. These risks contribute to the growing demand for gold among investors and central banks. Notably, the People's Bank of China resumed purchases in December after a six-month pause, once again becoming the largest buyer of the precious metal.

Table of contents:

• Key takeaways: Gold (XAUUSD) price prediction
• How to make a Gold price forecast?
• Why has the price of Gold increased?
• XAUUSD 2025 live price chart
• Gold (XAUUSD) weekly technical analysis
• Long-term Gold (XAUUSD) technical analysis
• Expert Gold price forecast 2025 and beyond
• Expert Gold price predictions for 2030
• Pros and cons of investing in Gold
• Conclusion
• FAQ

Key takeaways: Gold price prediction

Analysts predict a continued rise in gold prices, with the possibility of reaching record levels in 2025. Gold (XAUUSD) prices are expected to reach 3,500 USD with the potential to climb to 3,700 USD over the next two years. This growth is attributed to high demand from major central banks and changes in the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve.

Gold remains an attractive asset amid declining confidence in the US dollar in the East and ongoing geopolitical tensions. In its assessment, Morgan Stanley expected gold prices to stabilise at 2,700 USD in the first quarter of 2025, while UBS forecast a XAUUSD increase to 2,900 USD by the end of the year. Experts at Goldman Sachs believed gold could reach 3,000 USD in 2025. However, as we can see, gold prices tested the 3,499 USD level.

Particular attention is being paid to gold reserve purchases by central banks in developing countries, aiming to reduce dependence on the dollar and mitigate risks associated with sanctions. Analysts emphasise that the increase in US government debt will pressure confidence in the American currency in the long term, contributing to further growth in XAUUSD.

How to make a Gold price forecast?

Gold price forecasts are based on the analysis of the main factors determining its supply and demand. It also takes into account the price patterns on the price chart, the assessment of technical indicators, as well as the dynamics in emerging markets. Experts and investors distinguish three main approaches that allow to make an accurate XAUUSD forecast:

• US monetary policy
• Central bank purchases
• Geopolitical risks

These key drivers are significantly influenced by the level of confidence in the US dollar and its current strength or weakness. Other important factors analysts highlight include changes in investor sentiment, political instability during the election period, the threat of recession, ETF outflows, physical demand sensitivity, the US unemployment rate, and bank and industry risks in the US and China.

Fundamental factors

Fundamental analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) relies on changes in monetary policy by central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, as well as other key factors affecting the Gold price. These include the level of global consumption, investment in the metal, increased demand from central banks, the Fed rate cut and the suspension of Gold purchases by China. These factors significantly influence the price dynamics and form the basis for further forecasts on Gold.

Fed interest rate cut

Gold has traditionally shown a close correlation with central bank interest rate dynamics. Historically, gold has demonstrated steady growth in periods of falling interest rates and accelerating inflation, serving as a risk-hedging instrument. The shift in the monetary cycle in the U.S. became one of the factors driving gold prices higher in 2024. In September 2024, for the first time since 2020, the regulator cut the interest rate by 50 basis points. In December 2024, there was another rate cut, bringing it down to 4.5%. The regulator also noted that the easing cycle had entered a “new stage,” meaning that in 2025, interest rate decisions would be made more cautiously. Against this backdrop, the July 2025 FOMC meeting left the interest rate unchanged at 4.5%.

Global demand for Gold

According to the World Gold Council's Q3 2024 report, total gold demand rose 5% year-on-year to 1,313 tonnes, a record high for Q3. The total value of demand exceeded 100 billion USD for the first time, occurring amidst high investment levels at record gold prices.

Global investment demand rose to 1,248.8 tonnes due to increased interest in ETFs, mainly from Western investors. According to the World Gold Council, in Q2 2025 total investment demand for gold (including bars and coins) grew by 78% compared to the same period in 2024.

Gold demand in the technology sector declined by 2% year-on-year, amounting to 78.6 tonnes.

Gold purchases by central banks

In 2023, central banks purchased 1,037 tonnes of gold, marking the second-largest annual volume of purchases in history, second only to the record set in 2022, when 1,082 tonnes were acquired. These figures confirm gold's status as a reliable reserve asset for global economies. According to the World Gold Council (WGC) Gold Demand Trends Report for Q3 2024, gold purchases by central banks slowed compared to the second quarter, totalling 186 tonnes. Despite this deceleration, overall demand for gold from central banks remains stable. Over the first three quarters of 2024, cumulative demand reached 694 tonnes, aligning with the same period in 2022 and indicating continued interest from central banks in gold as a reserve asset. In 2025, central banks plan to acquire approximately 1,000 tonnes of gold, which could mark the fourth consecutive year of increased gold purchases by central banks.

According to a 2024 survey conducted among 70 central banks, 29% of respondents planned to increase their gold reserves in 2025 — the highest figure since such studies began in 2018. The main reasons cited for increasing reserves were the desire to reach an optimal reserve level, support for domestic gold production, and concerns over financial crises and inflation.

Central banks of developed countries traditionally have a large share of gold in their reserves. For example, in the US, France, Germany and Italy, gold accounts for about 70 per cent of reserves. In emerging markets, this figure is much lower - in China, gold accounts for only 5.7% of reserves. However, central banks in emerging markets are actively building up their gold reserves in an effort to reach levels similar to those of developed economies, which could support future gold growth.

China has stopped buying Gold

The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by purchasing an additional 1.9 tonnes in May 2025. This indicates a renewed interest in gold after a temporary pause caused by a sharp rise in prices.

According to the latest data, the volume of gold in the reserves of the People’s Bank of China is approximately 2,300 tonnes. The PBoC resumed replenishing its reserves in November after a six-month pause, confirming China’s intention to diversify its reserves despite high gold prices.

Tech analysis

This approach involves analysing historical data on Gold charts to identify price trends using various technical indicators, chart patterns and other analytical tools. Technical analysis helps to identify key resistance and support levels, trend lines, as well as to predict possible price reversals over the long term.

Based on historical data, we see that XAU/USD, as a rule, demonstrates an upward trend in the long term. Therefore, trend indicators such as Moving Averages, Bollinger Bands and the Ishimoku indicator are often used to analyse it. Oscillators such as RSI and MACD help to identify where the downward correction may end and signal possible upward reversal points.

Market sentiment

The main fundamental factors supporting the growth of XAUUSD price remain stable. Sustained demand from major central banks, which are actively increasing their Gold reserves, continues to contribute to a positive mood in the market. This is particularly evident in emerging markets, where central banks are seeking to diversify assets and reduce their dependence on the US dollar.

Rising geopolitical tensions, including in the Middle East, add to global uncertainty, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets such as gold. In 2025, major drivers of gold demand will include increased purchases by central banks, capital inflows into exchange-traded funds amid monetary policy easing, as well as geopolitical risks and potential escalation of trade tensions. After a period of declining demand, these funds have shown net inflows for five consecutive months, indicating active capital reallocation by institutional investors and contributing to the continued rise in precious metal prices.

Why has the price of Gold increased?

The rise in gold prices in 2025 is driven by multiple factors, including geopolitical instability. Conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as political crises in Germany and France, have heightened investor concerns. Additionally, the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy easing and trade tariffs amid slowing inflation have reduced the appeal of debt assets, thereby fuelling increased demand for gold. Central banks in developing countries and China have ramped up their gold purchases, aiming to reduce dependence on the US dollar and minimise sanction-related risks. Retail investors from countries such as China, India, Turkey, and Russia have also intensified gold buying, using it as a hedge against depreciation of their national currencies.

Macroeconomic factors also influenced demand for gold. The growing U.S. national debt and declining confidence in the American dollar boosted interest in gold as a safe-haven asset. Policies from the Trump administration, including plans to impose import tariffs and the removal of the debt ceiling limit, increased uncertainty, further strengthening gold's position. Renewed interest in gold ETFs and the precious metal's weak correlation with other asset classes made it a popular choice among retail investors. In 2025, these factors continue to reinforce gold's status as an asset capable of preserving value amid rising market volatility and political instability.

XAUUSD 2025 live price chart

Gold (XAUUSD) weekly technical analysis

On the daily chart, gold is moving toward the upper boundary of a “Triangle” pattern. Key support was at 3,274 USD, and a rebound from this level opened the way for further price growth within the pattern’s formation. In this scenario, the target is set at 3,500 USD. The Stochastic Oscillator is signaling a continuation of the sideways trend due to the %K and %D lines crossing. The resistance zone is located around 3,432 USD, and its breakout could indicate a continuation of price growth.

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD quotes continue to move within a medium-term uptrend. The EMA-65 and EMA-200 lines have approached each other, and a crossover may occur soon. In this case, it is quite likely that buyers will continue building positions and increase pressure on the USD, which would cause the EMA-65 and EMA-200 to diverge again, confirming the continuation of the uptrend. According to the main XAUUSD forecast for 2025, a “bearish” correction toward 3,283 USD is possible, followed by a likely resumption of growth toward 3,500 USD. A rebound from the support line on the Stochastic Oscillator further increases the probability of growth. A consolidation above 3,500 USD would signal further upward movement.

On the hourly chart, XAUUSD has crossed above the EMA-65 line, continuing its movement within the ascending channel. In the short term, a bullish impulse toward 3,500 USD may develop. This growth scenario is additionally supported by the %K and %D lines crossing on the Stochastic Oscillator.

Long-term Gold (XAUUSD) technical analysis

When preparing a long-term gold price forecast, it is important to consider several possible scenarios. This forecast highlights key support and resistance levels and analyses the price behaviour within the Bollinger Bands. It examines how frequently and significantly prices manage to break through either side of this trend indicator, helping to better understand current market trends and investor sentiment. It is worth noting that when key levels are broken, gold may either accelerate its upward movement or enter a correction, depending on changes in the external economic environment.

Bullish scenario

A possible bearish scenario is linked to the continuation of the downward wave on the MACD indicator. If gold prices fall to the 3,196 USD level, this would create conditions for a correction and trigger a decline in XAUUSD quotes. The nearest downside target would be the key support level at 3,030 USD. A breakout below this level would open the way for a deeper decline, potentially down to 2,750 USD, as part of a corrective wave. This pattern forms when the price breaks through the support level, confirming a trend reversal.

Bearish scenario

A potential bearish scenario is associated with the formation of a bearish wave on the MACD indicator. If gold prices fall to the 3,310 USD level, it would create conditions for a correction and trigger a decline in XAUUSD quotes. The nearest downside target would be the key support level at 3,270 USD. A breakout below this mark would open the way for a deeper decline down to 2,750 USD as part of a corrective wave. This pattern forms when the price breaks below a support level, confirming a trend reversal.

Sideways scenario

XAUUSD quotes have already rebounded from the 3,499 USD resistance level, then dropped to the support level of 3,196 USD and bounced off it. At present, prices are rising again and approaching resistance. If the buying pressure proves insufficient, another pullback towards the 3,196 USD support level is possible. If a new decline occurs but sellers fail to overcome the support, prices may resume growth while remaining within the sideways range. This scenario would indicate market uncertainty and expectations for new factors that could determine the future direction of movement and push prices out of the range.

Expert Gold price forecast 2025 and beyond

J.P. Morgan

J.P. Morgan has strengthened its bullish gold forecast for 2025, emphasising its continued appeal as a hedging instrument amid geopolitical tensions, a possible recession, and active central bank purchases. According to the bank’s latest forecast, average gold prices could reach 3,675 USD per ounce by Q4 2025, and climb to 4,000 USD per ounce by mid-2026. J.P. Morgan believes this growth is supported by sustained investment demand and a desire to protect assets from systemic and inflationary risks.

UBS

UBS has raised its base forecast for gold to 3,500 USD per ounce due to inflation risks, geopolitical tensions, and shifting expectations around Fed rates. Strong demand from central banks (up to 1,000 tonnes in 2025), growing interest in ETFs, and participation from both retail and institutional investors are supporting prices. Meanwhile, supply remains limited. UBS also raised its target range to 3,200-3,800 USD and maintains a long position on gold in global and Asian allocations.

SaxoBank

Saxo Bank notes that in 2025, gold will continue to be an attractive hedging asset amid persistent geopolitical instability, stagflation risks, and potential US dollar weakness. According to the updated forecast, analysts raised the target price from 3,300 to 3,500 USD per ounce, factoring in strong investment demand, expectations of a Fed rate hike pause, and high interest from central banks. Despite possible short-term fluctuations, Saxo points to a new normal with prices above 3,000 USD, where structural risks and weak global liquidity remain the key drivers.

ANZ

ANZ expects gold to reach 3,100 USD in the short term, and 3,200 USD within six months. By the end of 2025, analysts forecast a rise to 3,600 USD per ounce. The primary drivers include loosening Fed monetary policy, increased demand from central banks, and intensified geopolitical tensions. ANZ also highlights that gold remains an effective hedge against inflation and dollar instability.

Macquarie

Macquarie analysts forecast that in Q3 2025, gold could reach a peak of 3,500 USD, with an average level around 3,150 USD, driven by the US budget deficit, fiscal instability, and the expected weakening of the dollar. Despite possible volatility in the first half of 2025, Macquarie believes that stronger demand from China or a potential Trump return could help gold quickly break above the 3,000 USD level.

Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs raised its gold forecast to 3,700 USD by the end of 2025 and 4,000 USD by mid-2026. Initially, the 3,000 USD milestone was expected earlier, but changes in the Fed’s monetary policy led to revised timing. Nonetheless, analysts remain confident in a steady bullish trend supported by rising global demand, including from investment funds and central banks.

Bank of America

Bank of America expects gold to reach 3,500 USD per ounce in 2025, and up to 4,000 USD under more aggressive scenarios. Key factors include the US sovereign debt crisis, dollar weakness, and increased gold purchases by BRICS countries. BofA also notes that even with a strong dollar, gold remains a strategic asset amid the de-dollarisation of the global economy.

Citi Research

Citi Research expects gold to consolidate in the 3,100-3,500 USD range in Q3 2025, with the price potentially exceeding 3,500 USD in an optimistic scenario due to stronger investment demand and geopolitical tensions. However, by the end of 2025 and into 2026, demand may weaken, leading to a decline in prices to 2,500-2,700 USD in the second half of 2026.

Expert Gold price predictions for 2030

Many experts agree on the long-term bullish trend of the XAUUSD price as various fundamental factors point to it. Below are some of the expert opinions:

Charlie Morris, Head Of Multi Asset, Atlantic House Investments in the article in Alchemist magazine predicts a possible XAUUSD price of 7,000 USD per ounce by 2030. His prediction is based on several key factors. First, real inflation is expected to increase, which Morris believes could reach 4 per cent per decade. Second, real interest rates are expected to change. In addition, a fair value premium is factored in, which could increase substantially. These assumptions are based on analyses of current and past trends in the economy and the Gold market.

Another analyst Peter Leeds predicts that the XAUUSD price could reach 10,000 USD per ounce by 2030, driven by a number of economic and geopolitical factors. The main drivers of growth are the weakening of the US dollar due to the huge national debt, the growing budget deficit and its decreasing role in international trade, especially with the reduced use of the petrodollar. The BRICS countries, which are actively building up Gold reserves, are also having an impact: their new Gold-backed currency is expected to become a serious competitor to the dollar. An additional growth factor will be global economic instability and the growing demand for Gold as an ‘insurance’ asset.

The author emphasises that XAUUSD prices will grow annually, but the timing of reaching the 10,000 USD mark depends on the speed of development of the processes mentioned above. The key triggers may be the intensification of geopolitical conflicts, devaluation of the dollar or mass transition of investors to Gold. To maximise the benefits, it is recommended to invest both in physical Gold and in shares of Gold mining companies with low debts and high reserves. Gold remains a solid defence against economic turmoil and loss of purchasing power of currencies.

Pros and cons of investing in Gold

Gold has long been one of the most popular instruments for capital protection and risk mitigation. Even though it has many advantages, such as protection against inflation and portfolio diversification, it is important to consider the disadvantages of investing in this asset. For an investor, knowing the pros and cons of investing in gold helps in making informed investment decisions.

Pros

• Inflation protection: Gold traditionally serves as a reliable hedge against inflation. As prices rise and the purchasing power of currency falls, Gold maintains or even increases its value, helping investors protect their savings.
• Portfolio diversification: Gold can add diversification to an investment portfolio because its value typically has low correlation with stocks and bonds. Therefore, the price of this precious metal often moves in the opposite direction, reducing overall portfolio risk.
• Liquidity: Gold is a highly liquid asset that can be easily bought and sold on global markets. This makes it attractive for investors who may need to quickly convert their assets into cash.
• Safe-haven in crises: during periods of economic or geopolitical instability, XAUUSD is often seen as a "safe haven" asset. Investors tend to invest in the metal amidst uncertainty, which often supports and can even increase the value of gold when other assets may be declining.
• Tangible asset: unlike stocks or bonds, Gold is a physical, tangible asset that can be held and stored. This gives investors a sense of confidence and security compared to digital assets.
• Long-term value preservation: over time, Gold has maintained its value, making it a reliable means of preserving wealth through generations. It is less susceptible to risks associated with fiat currencies and other financial assets.
• Global demand: Gold is in demand worldwide, both as a commodity for industrial use and as a store of value. This global demand supports stability and provides potential for price growth.

Cons

• Lack of passive income: unlike stocks or bonds, Gold does not generate passive income, such as dividends or interest. Investors can only rely on the appreciation of Gold, which can be unpredictable.
• Volatility: despite its reputation as a stable asset, Gold can exhibit significant short-term price fluctuations. These fluctuations can lead to losses for investors focused on short-term gains.
• Storage costs: physical Gold requires secure storage, especially when held in large quantities. This adds additional costs that can reduce the overall profitability of Gold investments.
• Lack of yield: Gold does not generate income, unlike bonds or stocks. This can be a drawback for investors seeking regular passive income from their investments.
• Dependence on global factors: the value of Gold depends on numerous factors such as supply and demand, economic indicators, and geopolitical situations. This means that Gold prices can be subject to external shocks over which investors have no control.
• Market manipulation risks: XAU/USD prices can be affected by market manipulations, especially by large financial institutions or states, which can lead to unpredictable price changes.
• Opportunity costs: investing in Gold means essentially locking capital in a non-yielding asset. This can lead to missed opportunities for investing in other assets that may offer higher returns over time, such as stocks or bonds.

Conclusion

The sharp rise in gold prices in 2025 is driven by political and economic instability, including geopolitical conflicts and the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy easing. Central banks, particularly in developing countries, increased their gold purchases, while retail investors actively used gold to hedge against inflation and currency depreciation. Additionally, the growing US national debt and Trump’s tariff proposals supported demand for gold as a safe-haven asset against uncertainty and volatility.

Based on technical analysis, gold maintains its upward momentum on the chart. Buyers have managed to keep prices above the EMA-65 line for an extended period. The 2025 gold forecast points to a potential rise to the 3,500 USD and 3,700 USD levels, provided there is a strong consolidation above the nearest resistance at 3,499 USD. The Stochastic Oscillator confirms bullish momentum, signalling a potential continuation of the upward move. However, a breakout below the lower boundary of the Triangle with price consolidation under 3,270 USD may trigger a bearish correction towards 2,750 USD or lower.

Gold forecasts for 2025 range from moderate to optimistic. Overall, analysts predict rising prices for the metal, with estimates ranging from 3,500 USD to 4,000 USD. Expectations of Fed rate cuts, along with demand from central banks and investors, including physical purchases and ETFs, are anticipated to support prices. However, potential strengthening of the US dollar and higher bond yields could pose risks to this growth. Nevertheless, gold retains strong upside potential, especially if political instability or economic risks intensify.