Gold (XAUUSD) is under pressure: traders are awaiting the Fed’s final statement

XAUUSD prices are declining after rebounding from a crucial resistance level, with the price currently at 2,739 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 28 January 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• XAUUSD quotes stabilised at the support level ahead of the two-day Federal Reserve meeting
• The Federal Reserve is expected to keep the interest rate unchanged
• Gold is under pressure due to threats to keep the interest rate unchanged to curb inflation and due to the strengthening of the US dollar
• XAUUSD forecast for 28 January 2025: 2,730 and 2,695

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes have stabilised, holding onto the 2,730 USD support level ahead of the two-day Federal Reserve meeting. Investors are anxiously awaiting the final statement and speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to gain a better insight into the future monetary policy trajectory.

The Federal Reserve is expected to leave the interest rate unchanged. However, the market will primarily focus on Powell’s comments on the inflation outlook and the regulator’s possible response to increased inflation risks associated with US President Donald Trump’s policies.

Gold may become less appealing as a safe-haven asset amid high inflation if the Federal Reserve is forced to maintain elevated interest rates to keep prices down. Additionally, the strengthening of the US dollar, caused by Trump’s new import threats, puts additional pressure on Gold prices, which could send prices further down according to the XAUUSD forecast for 28 January 2025.

XAUUSD technical analysis

The uptrend persists on the XAUUSD M30 chart. However, the quotes have consolidated below the EMA-285 line, indicating a certain pressure from the bears. Risks for further decline are also confirmed by the formed Head and Shoulders reversal pattern. Gold prices breached the pattern’s neckline, with the pattern likely to be complete with the target at 2,695 USD.

The XAUUSD price forecast suggests a minor bullish correction, with the price testing the breached channel boundary at 2,745 USD before continuing its downward trajectory. A confident breakout below the 2,730 USD support level will support this scenario.

The Stochastic Oscillator, which has now reversed from the oversold area, shows the intersection of the %K and %D lines in favour of growth. This may indicate the buyers’ attempt to trigger a short-term price increase before XAUUSD continues to plunge.

Price consolidation above 2,760 USD will invalidate the bearish scenario, confirming the resumption of the uptrend and indicating the potential for further growth towards 2,780 USD.

Summary

Amid uncertainty and rising inflation, Gold may face additional pressure from a strengthening US dollar and potential Fed monetary policy tightening. If the regulator maintains elevated interest rates, this could push Gold prices lower in the short term.

Today’s XAUUSD analysis suggests a short-term bullish correction towards 2,745 USD, followed by a decline to 2,695 USD. A breakout above the 2,760 USD level will invalidate the bearish scenario and open the way for growth to 2,780 USD.