Gold (XAUUSD) falls amid profit taking

03.02.2025

XAUUSD prices are correcting within an ascending channel, with quotes currently at 2,787 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 3 February 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

  • Investors are locking in profits after prices have reached a new all-time high, adding to the downward pressure
  • New tariffs imposed by the US on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China boosted demand for safe-haven assets
  • The strengthening of the US dollar exerts pressure on Gold prices, making it more expensive for buyers
  • XAUUSD forecast for 3 February 2025: 2,815 and 2,845

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are falling after rebounding from the crucial resistance level at 2,790 USD despite increased demand for safe-haven assets after the US imposed new tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. However, buying activity remains, with traders actively transporting Gold from London to New York, which led to a shortage of bullion on the London market.

The main factor of pressure on Gold remains the strengthening of the US dollar, which makes the metal more expensive for foreign buyers. Additional pressure comes from the likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining elevated interest rates due to possible inflationary consequences of new tariffs. The regulator’s tight monetary policy makes Gold less appealing as it does not bring interest income. Additionally, investors are locking in profits after prices have recently reached a new all-time high, intensifying the downward movement.

XAUUSD technical analysis

XAUUSD continues to move within the ascending channel. Prices have consolidated above the EMA-65 after sellers failed to breach the Moving Average, confirming the persisting medium-term bullish trend. The quotes have recently shown a corrective decline after reaching the channel’s upper boundary at 2,816 USD. This price behaviour indicates local profit-taking and possible overheating of the market near the highs.

The nearest support level is located at the middle line of the ascending channel at 2,770 USD. This level coincides with the key area, where buyers have already been active, pushing the quotes up. The channel’s upper boundary remains the nearest resistance level at 2,830 USD, which curbs further growth in Gold prices.

The Stochastic Oscillator has nearly reached the support line and exited the oversold area, potentially signalling an imminent upward reversal. However, to confirm this signal, it is important to wait until prices break above the resistance level and consolidate above 2,795 USD, which will indicate the end of the current bearish correction. According to today’s XAUUSD forecast, a strong recovery could lead to a retest of the 2,815 USD level, with prices potentially breaking above it and advancing to 2,845 USD.

The bearish scenario is possible if prices break below the channel’s lower boundary and consolidate below 2,760 USD, adding to selling pressure and potentially pushing prices down to 2,725 USD.

XAUUSD technical analysis
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Summary

XAUUSD quotes remain under pressure due to the strengthening of the US dollar and expectations of tight Federal Reserve monetary policy, which makes Gold less attractive as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, prices are affected by profit-taking by investors after prices have reached all-time highs. The XAUUSD price forecast indicates a continued upward movement despite the correction, with prices potentially recovering and retesting the 2,815 USD level. With a breakout above the crucial resistance level, the upside target will be 2,845 USD. An alternative scenario suggests a decline to 2,725 USD if prices consolidate below 2,760 USD.

Attention!

Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.