Gold price set to soar? Traders eye 3,015 USD target

US retail sales growth may be an additional trigger for a correction in XAUUSD quotes towards the 2,965 USD support level. Find out more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 17 March 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• US core retail sales index: previously at -0.4%, projected at 0.3%
• US retail sales: previously at -0.9%, projected at 0.6%
• Current trend: moving upwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 17 March 2025: 2,965 and 3,015

Fundamental analysis

Fundamental XAUUSD analysis for today, 17 March 2025 shows that the US core retail sales index may be up from the previous reading, coming in at 0.3%. The index transition to positive territory will be an additional signal of US GDP growth.

US retail sales is an indicator that reflects the current amount of goods sold in retail trade for the month. The indicator shows how much consumer demand has changed from the previous month. The calculation includes all sales in stores, catering outlets, online sales, and other commercial structures, excluding service costs. The previous reading was -0.9%, and the figure may rise to 0.6% according to the forecast for 17 March 2025. Overall, its growth shows an increase in consumer activity and possible economic strengthening.

The XAUUSD price forecast for 17 March 2025 appears rather optimistic, with quotes likely to continue their upward trajectory towards 3,015 USD after a correction.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger band. At this stage, they are forming a corrective wave following the signal from the pattern. The uptrend will likely continue after the correction as XAUUSD quotes are within the ascending channel. At this stage, the target for a pullback could be the 2,965 USD support level.

However, the XAUUSD technical analysis for today also suggests another scenario, where prices rise to 3,015 USD without testing the support level.

After testing the resistance level, XAUUSD prices could reach a new all-time high in the near term and head towards 3,050 USD.

Summary

Fundamental data on US retail sales indicates an increase in consumer activity, which may support the economy. In such conditions, Gold (XAUUSD) prices have a chance to rise to 3,015 USD after a correction.