Friday chaos – Nonfarm Payrolls to shake up Gold (XAUUSD) again

A decline in US Nonfarm Payrolls may boost XAUUSD quotes towards 3,160 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 4 April 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• US Nonfarm Payrolls: previously at 151 thousand, projected at 137 thousand
• US unemployment rate: previously at 4.1%, projected at 4.1%
• Current trend: moving upwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 4 April 2025: 3,160 and 3,075

Fundamental analysis

According to the XAUUSD forecast for 4 April 2025, US Nonfarm Payrolls may decline to 137 thousand from the previous 151 thousand. If the actual figure aligns with expectations, the market may see heightened volatility and a temporary weakening of the US dollar.

The Nonfarm Payrolls release consistently generates strong market reactions and can either support the US dollar or make it lose ground.

Today’s XAUUSD analysis also considers that the US unemployment rate for March is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%. The lack of changes from the previous period would be a neutral factor for the USD.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. At this stage, they are forming a corrective wave following the signal from the pattern. As XAUUSD quotes remain within an ascending channel, the uptrend will likely continue once the correction is complete. For now, a target for the pullback could be the 3,075 support level.

However, the XAUUSD technical analysis for today also suggests another scenario, where prices rise to 3,160 USD without testing the support level.

After the correction, XAUUSD prices may soon reach a new all-time high and target the 3,200 USD level.

Summary

A decline in US Nonfarm Payrolls, combined with XAUUSD technical analysis, suggests further growth towards the 3,160 USD level.