The US dollar loses ground, Gold (XAUUSD) is poised for a breakout

Weak US fundamentals could trigger a rally in Gold (XAUUSD) towards 3,185 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 10 April 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March: previously at 2.8%, projected at 2.5%
• US initial jobless claims: previously at 219 thousand, projected at 223 thousand
• Current trend: moving upwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 10 April 2025: 3,185 and 3,100

Fundamental analysis

The Consumer Price Index reflects changes in consumer prices of goods and services, helping assess changes in buying trends and economic stagnation. A lower-than-expected reading typically has a negative effect on the national currency.

The XAUUSD forecast for 10 April 2025 suggests the CPI may come in below the previous reading of 2.8%, with forecasts around 2.5%. Today’s fundamental analysis for XAUUSD shows that a weaker CPI would likely weigh on the US dollar.

US initial jobless claims represent the number of people who claimed unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week. This indicator measures the labour market climate, with an increase in initial jobless claims indicating rising unemployment.

The previous figure was 219 thousand, so today’s forecast is positive for XAUUSD prices, suggesting an increase to 223 thousand. Although the change is modest, any reading that meets or exceeds expectations could positively impact XAUUSD quotes.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices have formed a Harami reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger band. A bullish wave is developing as this signal plays out. The uptrend will likely continue as prices remain within an ascending channel, with the potential upside target at the 3,185 USD resistance level.

However, the XAUUSD technical analysis for today also suggests an alternative scenario, where prices correct towards 3,100 USD before maintaining their upward trajectory.

Summary

Amid weak forecasts for US economic data, XAUUSD prices continue their upward momentum. Technical analysis supports a move towards 3,185 USD, with a potential correction to 3,100 USD before testing the resistance level.