Gold (XAUUSD) supported by Fed rate-cut expectations

Gold (XAUUSD) shows moderate gains as markets anticipate an upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut, with prices currently at 3,977 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 29 October 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Gold gains support amid expectations of a Fed rate cut
• Traders are awaiting signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell
• Progress in US-China trade negotiations reduces demand for safe-haven assets
• XAUUSD forecast for 29 October 2025: 3,870

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are rising slightly after a three-day decline, supported by growing confidence that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets price in a 99.9% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the October meeting.

Traders are also awaiting hints from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell about the Fed’s future policy direction, as markets already expect an additional cut in December.

Meanwhile, investors are closely monitoring progress in trade talks between the US and China. The two sides have reached preliminary agreements on key provisions, easing geopolitical tensions and reducing demand for safe-haven assets such as gold.

XAUUSD technical analysis

XAUUSD quotes remain under pressure within a descending channel. Prices are holding below the EMA-65, confirming continued selling pressure and a prevailing bearish sentiment.

Today’s XAUUSD price forecast suggests the possibility of a further decline towards 3,870 USD. The Stochastic Oscillator is moving in overbought territory and forming a downward reversal, signalling a possible weakening of the current pullback and supporting the bearish scenario.

A consolidation below 3,940 USD would strengthen the case for renewed downward pressure in the near term.

Summary

Fundamental and technical factors point to limited upside potential for gold. Market expectations of a Fed rate cut are already priced in, while improving US-China trade relations reduce safe-haven demand. The XAUUSD outlook for today confirms continued downward momentum, with a likely move towards the 3,870 USD level.

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