Gold (XAUUSD) on track for the strongest annual rally since 1979

Gold (XAUUSD) prices recovered to 4,130 USD as the market anticipates a Fed rate cut. Discover more in our analysis for 12 November 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Gold (XAUUSD) takes a pause after strong growth
• 2025 is set to be the strongest year for gold appreciation since 1979
• XAUUSD forecast for 12 November 2025: 4,150

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices continue to rise for the fourth consecutive session, climbing above 4,130 USD per ounce, a two-week high. The growth is driven by expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut, with markets pricing in about a 68% probability.

Private data showed that US companies cut an average of 11,250 jobs per week during the last four weeks of October. This confirms a worsening labour market situation and strengthens the case for further monetary policy easing.

Investors are also focusing on the end of the longest US government shutdown in history. The Senate has approved temporary funding, and the government is expected to restart in the coming days. This may reduce economic uncertainty and slightly ease demand for safe-haven assets.

Nevertheless, gold (XAUUSD) maintains its upward momentum and remains on track for its strongest annual performance since 1979.

The gold (XAUUSD) outlook is positive.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, after a late-October decline, XAUUSD quotes stabilised within the 3,900–4,000 USD per ounce range, beginning a strong recovery from 8 November.

On Monday and Tuesday, prices tested the 4,150 resistance level, coinciding with the upper boundary of the local range. The nearest support lies near 4,095, aligning with the middle Bollinger Band.

The technical picture suggests a short pause in the upward movement: after four days of gains, the market is correcting but remains above key support levels. Bollinger Bands are widening, confirming volatility, while prices are moving along the middle line, indicating a consolidation phase.

A breakout above 4,150 would open the way to the next target at 4,380, the late October high. A drop below 4,095 could deepen the correction towards 4,050–4,000.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) maintains a moderately bullish trend, and the current pause looks like a breather before a new upward impulse. The gold (XAUUSD) forecast for today, 12 November 2025, suggests a test of 4,150.

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