Gold (XAUUSD) awaits the Fed decision

XAUUSD prices declined below 4,200 USD, undergoing a downward correction as investors take profit ahead of Wednesday’s Fed rate decision. Find more details in our analysis for 9 December 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the market awaits the Fed’s interest rate decision tomorrow
• Current trend: correcting downwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 9 December 2025: 4,265 or 4,150

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes have moved below 4,200 USD per ounce as investors lock in profits ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting. A 25-basis-point rate cut is expected. Current market pricing implies an 87% probability of such a move by the regulator.

Investors will closely monitor updated economic projections and statements by Chairman Jerome Powell to gain insight into the US central bank’s plans for 2026 and beyond. Market participants currently expect two additional rate cuts next year.

XAUUSD technical analysis

XAUUSD prices corrected below 4,200 USD amid profit-taking ahead of the Fed's rate decision. The Alligator indicator is pointing downwards, suggesting that the corrective move may continue.

The short-term XAUUSD price forecast suggests further growth towards 4,265 USD and higher if buyers regain control and push prices above 4,200 USD. If, however, sellers maintain pressure and keep prices below 4,200 USD, a decline towards the 4,150 USD support level is possible.

Summary

Gold is moderately correcting, falling below 4,200 USD. The market focus tomorrow will be on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

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